Victoria experiences record-warm spring start amid severe fire outlook and climate warnings

Spring is off to a warmer-than-average start across Victoria, following a record-breaking winter.

Melbourne's average top temperature for September is 17.3 degrees Celsius – yesterday, the mercury almost hit 22C.

The temperate region of East Gippsland was hotter at lunchtime yesterday than the semi-arid city of Mildura, in the state's north-west.

Bairnsdale in East Gippsland reached a top temperature of 24.1C, more than 6 degrees above the September average.

The entire state experienced one of its warmest starts to spring, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecaster Chris Kent said.

"These are temperatures we don't see very often," he told the Victorian Country Hour.

Making hay, preparing for the dry

The spring fire outlook for Victoria is one of the most severe in 25 years.

Fire authorities have warned that East Gippsland is at an elevated risk of bushfires from October, along with parts of south-west Victoria.

A "firmly established" El Niño climate pattern could contribute to warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia over the next few months.

But farming regions across much of eastern Australia enjoyed the wet and warm winter, which growers hope will carry crops and pastures through a drier, hotter spring.

National agricultural research body the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia could produce bumper grain crops.

Victoria planted its largest-ever winter crop this year, with production forecast to increase 12 per cent.

North-east Victoria beef cattle breeder Jane Carney said she and other farmers were making hay while conditions are good, while also coming up with contingency plans.

"I think most people have always got it in the back of their minds, and we've been warned about this dry spring," she said.

"But I'm fully aware the season could turn off and go quite badly for us very quickly."

Warm winter leading to hot spring

The BOM said severe weather would become more common across Australia heading into spring.

Senior meteorologist Jonathan How said the winter of 2026 "will be remembered for being particularly warm".

He said preliminary data showed it was among the 10 warmest winters on record across Australia.

Andrew Watkins from the community-funded Climate Council said burning fossil fuels would continue to drive up temperatures.

"We also know that it will bring even longer periods of dry weather, abruptly ended or interspersed with intense periods of wet," said Dr Watkins, who was a lead author of Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment.

"The dry and warm weather we expect from El Niño is amplified by the dry and warm conditions we are experiencing from climate change.

"Together they are a very dangerous double act.''