Vikings vs. Bills prediction: Josh Allen faces NFL's top defense on Monday night

In the Week 9 edition of "Monday Night Football," the Minnesota Vikings host the Buffalo Bills. Minnesota is coming off its first loss of the season after starting the year with six straight wins. The Vikings turn to Carson Wentz to start in place of Kyler Murray, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Minnesota sports arguably the NFL's best defense, and it will be put to the test on Monday night against the Bills.

Buffalo has won three consecutive games to improve to 6-1, and last week beat up on the Baltimore Ravens following an injury to Lamar Jackson on the Ravens' first snap of the game. Buffalo is in first place in the AFC East behind its efficient and explosive offense, which has helped offset a defense that has been highly vulnerable this year.

Will the Vikings bounce back, or will the Bills continue to roll? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.

How to watch Vikings vs. Bills live

Date: Monday, Nov. 9 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)

TV: ESPN/ABC | Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Follow: CBS Sports App

Odds: Bills -3, O/U 43.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

When the Bills have the ball

This is going to be one of the most fascinating matchups of the season, as arguably the NFL's best quarterback (Josh Allen) will do battle with arguably the NFL's best defensive play-caller (Brian Flores). We know the state of play: the Vikings are going to blitz on damn near every snap, and the Bills are going to have to figure out how in the world to deal with all the extra bodies the Vikings send against both the run and the pass.

Last week, the Vikings totally shut down one of the best offenses in the league during the first half, holding the Lions to a mere 154 total yards (on 36 plays, an average of 4.3 per play) and only six points prior to the break. They frustrated Jared Goff and the passing game with their heavy blitzing and they limited Jahmyr Gibbs and company to a 25% rushing success rate.

Buffalo has been one of the best running teams in the NFL, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks fourth in the league. The Bills can lean on James Cook, who, after leading the NFL in rushing last year, is actually averaging nearly six more rushing yards per game than he did a year ago. Buffalo likes to get downhill runs with schemes like duo that create double teams inside, which is tough to do against the Vikings, but can lead to big gains if you can block them up front. Whether the Bills can do that is obviously another question.

It's important to note that Allen has been blitzed on exactly a third of his dropbacks, per Tru Media, meaning he's faced the 11th-highest blitz rate in the NFL. He's 46 of 70 for 587 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions on those plays, and he's been sacked six times. That's all led to him checking in fourth in yards per attempt (8.4) and seventh in passing success rate (50.0%) but only 15th in EPA per dropback thanks to the interceptions.

The Bills will need to get the ball out quickly against the blitz, which could mean underneath targets like Khalil Shakir and passing-down back Ty Johnson are heavily involved. It might be a lighter game for the likes of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, as teams often keep their tight ends back in pass protection against Flores' blitz-happy defense.

It might also be tough for DJ Moore and Keon Coleman to get open down the field, but there could be opportunities for big plays if the offensive line does hold up on any given snap. The Vikings have given up the occasional deep shot this year because they send so many men after the quarterback and it leaves them shorthanded on the back end at times.

When the Vikings have the ball

The Vikings have struggled to move the ball pretty much all season. Their 4.7 yards-per-play average is tied for third-worst in the NFL. Their 1.71 points-per-drive average is fifth-worst in the NFL. And their -0.14 expected points added per play average is second-worst in the NFL, according to Tru Media.

They've yet to gain more than 364 yards in any game, and they've been at 275 or fewer in five of their seven contests. They've scored more than 23 points just one time, and it was back in Week 1 when they had touchdown drives of 28, 1 and 14 yards late in the game against the Green Bay Packers.

Some of the struggles can be laid at the feet of Kyler Murray, who has completed 64.9% of his passes at an average of just 6.6 yards per attempt, with a mere five touchdown passes and three interceptions. Some of the struggles can be laid at the feet of the run game, where the backs have combined to average south of 4.0 yards per carry. Jordan Mason missed four games, but it's not like he's been effective when he's been on the field, having averaged 3.9 yards a pop.

Murray won't be on the field on Monday night. It'll be Carson Wentz under center in his place. Wentz went 23 of 39 for 276 yards and three touchdowns in one-plus games in relief of Murray earlier this year. He seemed to have more command of the offense and more chemistry with Justin Jefferson than Murray does, at the very least. Jefferson went for eight catches for 92 yards and two scores during Wentz's relief appearance back in Week 1, and he was on the receiving end of seven of Wentz's 19 pass attempts in that game. (Wentz's start the following week came in a driving rainstorm in Chicago and doesn't provide much room for analysis.)

If the Vikings can keep Wentz well-protected, there should be some opportunities for Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to find openings in what has been a very leaky back seven. The Bills have been solid against the run this year, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. Given the Vikings' struggles on the ground, it seems unlikely that they'll have much in the way of success running the ball here.

Prediction

You can't ask me to buy into this Minnesota offense right now — not even against Buffalo's leaky defense. We just saw the Vikings put up a relatively limp offensive performance against the Lions. And if there's a team out there that can run the ball on Minnesota the way the Lions did, it might be the Bills with Josh Allen and James Cook. Buffalo can win a low-ish scoring game here by doing just that.