Violence of October 17: How French intelligence was overtaken by mobilization

Saturday's mobilization took the French authorities by surprise. With 550,000 demonstrators across the country, including 110,000 in Paris, according to official figures, participation far exceeded intelligence service forecasts. Violence and looting also broke out in several cities, notably in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Limoges, where the police were overwhelmed.

The intelligence services had, however, assured that this day would not be “the big evening”. They anticipated 150,000 participants in the regions and 80,000 in the capital. As of Sunday, Emmanuel Macron recognized “an intelligence failure”, an observation also shared on Monday by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. The latter spoke of “the mess” in certain cities, while several members of the government denounced a lack of anticipation.

Lack of staff and legal obstacles

Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, who headed the Interior Ministry for more than four years, particularly criticized the services' abilities to monitor radical movements. “French intelligence is at the top in the fight against Islamist terrorism, it is strong against organized crime, it is important against foreign interference but, clearly, it does not know how to fight properly against the ultra-left,” he declared. A situation reminiscent of the difficulties encountered during the Yellow Vest movement in 2018 and the riots following the death of Nahel in 2023.

For a senior police officer, these difficulties find their origin in particular in the dissolution of general intelligence in 2008. “Human intelligence has disappeared,” he believes, pointing to the lack of staff and the legal obstacles linked to encrypted messaging. The proliferation of false information on social networks and leaflets generated by artificial intelligence would also have complicated the work of analysts. “We check everything, so that it dilutes our analytical capacity,” explains a security source.

The social media sounding board

Beyond the number of demonstrators, the authorities were surprised by the composition of the groups involved in the violence. According to a security source, ultra-left activists were joined by violent protesters and young people from the neighborhoods. “This alliance between the ultra-left, the radical far left and young people from the neighborhoods is completely unprecedented,” says this source. The services had identified risks of overflows, without being able to measure the extent of this convergence.

All our articles on this weekend's violence