Control of the United States Senate has already been decided, with 33 of 35 races being declared within hours of polls closing. In Alaska and Mississippi, however, there has not yet been a definition, and it may take a long time before the results of both are known, even with the gradual release of new vote totals in the coming days.
In both cases, the Democratic candidate maintains a small advantage, but the reasons for the lack of a definition are quite different.
What we know about the Alaska Senate race
The Senate race in Alaska could take days or weeks to resolve. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate, had a lead of less than a thousand votes on Wednesday afternoon (4), but almost a quarter of the expected total votes had not yet been counted.
Most of the remaining votes are mailed ballots. Some were deposited close to election day, while others were posted until voting day and will still be received in the following days. A smaller number of in-person early votes also remains pending.
The deadline to count all ballots, including provisional votes, is November 18th. This is also the date on which counting will begin using the ranked-choice voting system, if neither Peltola nor Senator Daniel Sullivan, the Republican who holds the position, exceed the 50% threshold necessary to win the election in the first round.
While late-mailed and late-received votes typically favor Democrats, several factors could reduce Peltola's potential advantage. These include the number of ballots yet to be received and the number of voters who did not rank additional candidates beyond their first choice. There is also the potentially complicating presence of the other two candidates on the ballot: Gerald L. Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr..
An analysis by The New York Times of available data on ranked-choice voting, extracted from each voter's cells, shows that more than a third who put Heikes or Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. as their first choice did not rank any other candidate. This means that these ballots would not be counted in favor of Peltola or Senator Sullivan in subsequent rounds of counting using the first-order voting system.
What we know about the Mississippi Senate race
As of Wednesday night, Scott Colom, Democratic candidate in Mississippi, had an advantage of approximately a thousand votes over Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, the current Republican occupant of the position. Because the difference is so small, the Associated Press may not be able to declare a winner before the state officially certifies the result.
Mississippi is, to some extent, an exception, as it does not have an automatic recount mechanism nor does it have a procedure that allows a candidate to formally contest the election. Therefore, a court order would be needed to initiate a recount.
Virtually all votes have already been counted, but there are still some provisional ballots — given to voters whose eligibility to vote needs to be verified — awaiting counting, as well as some mailed ballots that arrived late. According to the Mississippi Secretary of State, there are approximately 3,600 mail-in ballots still outstanding that could arrive in time to be counted.
In June, the Mississippi Supreme Court ruled that the state must accept mail-in ballots that arrive by the Tuesday following Election Day — this year, November 10. Provisional votes in the state must also be counted by that date.
For a provisional ballot to be accepted, a voter must present proper identification to election officials, obtain a state voter identification card, or submit a declaration of exemption for religious reasons.
Some counties in the state said they expect to begin releasing part of the results for provisional votes as early as Wednesday. It is currently unknown how many ballots remain uncounted across the state.
To make the process even more complex, the processing and counting of votes — including the decision on the validity of provisional ballots — are conducted by each county's five-member electoral commission, and not by a single electoral authority.
In 2024, the state recorded just under 15,000 provisional ballots, of which 70% were accepted. In 2022, there were approximately 5,700 ballots of this type, of which 75% were considered valid.
