Scenario one: Divided majorities
The US media considers it a very likely scenario that the Democrats will win the majority in the House of Representatives. The analysis service Cook Political Report writes that the Republicans' chances of retaining control of the chamber of Congress have "all but vanished into thin air." The only remaining question is how large the Democrats' majority will be.
The situation is different in the race for the 35 seats up for election in the Senate. Cook Political Report classifies seven states (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas) as "toss up", i.e. open. Contrary to the Democrats' hopes, it is realistic that the Republicans will defend their majority here, despite the poor poll numbers for President Donald Trump.
In this scenario - "blue" (Democratic) House of Representatives and "red" (Republican) Senate - Trump would have to be prepared for the fact that governing will become less comfortable for him: The Democrats could, with their majority in the House of Representatives, pass laws on health insurance, housing construction or AI data centers - albeit of a more symbolic nature. Because a Republican-dominated Senate would probably block this.
In addition, with a majority in the House of Representatives, the Democrats could summon Trump or members of his administration to committees and thus control their policies more strictly. In this case, too, they would not have any real recourse against the Trump government because the Senate could always veto it.
There is also an instrument that Trump is already using in many policy areas: executive orders. This means he can implement resolutions bypassing Congress. If a chamber of parliament is no longer favorable to him, it can be assumed that he will even more so use this means.
Scenario two: The “blue wave”
Trump definitely wants to prevent this scenario, in which the control of the Republicans (party color red) over both chambers of Congress is swept away by a broad swing in sentiment in favor of the Democrats (party color blue).
Trump would then have to be prepared for the fact that the Democrats will do everything they can to overrule or at least delay his executive orders. He could veto this, which Congress can only override with a two-thirds majority, but it would cost him time and involve him in even more domestic political debates.
A majority in both chambers would make it easier for Democrats to initiate parliamentary investigations and also initiate new impeachment proceedings against Trump. The latter scenario, for example, is invoked by the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson. A simple majority is sufficient in the House of Representatives, but a two-thirds majority would be required in the Senate. And that is not in sight.
In fact, polls suggest that the Democrats will only make slight gains. Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. However, surveys have proven to be only partially reliable, at least before presidential elections in the USA.
If the political mood in the US ultimately turns massively against Trump and Congress goes entirely to the Democrats, the citizens would officially give him a devastating report, even though he kept telling them during the election campaign that they were living in a "golden age."
Since Trump repeatedly follows the motto with the public that what cannot happen cannot be, political observers are already questioning how Trump would react to such a result.
Scenario three: Republicans defend both chambers
According to all surveys, it is currently considered the most unlikely scenario, but the Republicans - and especially Trump - have often been underestimated: If the president's party defends its majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump could continue to govern without much resistance.
Because at least in the first two years of Trump's second term in office, Republicans were not particularly bothered by the fact that Trump repeatedly failed to involve Congress in his executive orders.
With a Republican-dominated Senate, Trump would still have the ability to appoint federal judges, including at lower levels of district courts. In this way, he could influence the jurisprudence even beyond his term in office.
The big imponderable here: Even with a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump will enter the much-hyped "lame duck" phase the day after the midterms.
Since he cannot run again according to the constitution, the question of his successor is now increasingly being discussed. Old loyalties may then count less than the consideration of distinguishing oneself through independence - even against Trump.
Scenario four: Legal disputes and allegations of election fraud
Trump has questioned election results several times in the past - to this day he claims, without any facts, that he won the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden. Before the midterm elections, he particularly questioned the postal voting system and wanted to tighten the rules - but was ultimately stopped by the Supreme Court.
In addition, his government has until recently tried to interfere in the electoral regulations for which the states are responsible. In California, for example, the US Department of Justice demanded that 20,000 postal votes be declared invalid - because non-US citizens allegedly voted. Here, too, judges stopped the Trump administration.
Given this history, there are fears that the US government could challenge the legality of the election if the Republicans lose.
The Reuters news agency interviewed dozens of election officials and legal experts in the USA. And they expressed concern, among other things, that federal officials could use a judicial search warrant to confiscate ballot papers, voting machines and election documents. In this way, the government could stop or at least prolong the delicate process of counting votes.
It is also being discussed whether the Trump administration could put pressure on election authorities and election officials to prevent them from certifying the official result - it would be a pattern like that after the 2020 presidential election. At that time, Trump called the Secretary of State of Georgia, who is responsible for elections, and demanded: "Find 11,780 votes."
It is also critically assessed that the US Department of Justice wants to send 1,000 men and women, almost twice as many election observers to the states as for the 2024 election. The government also asserts here that it is only interested in a regulated process. However, many election officials are skeptical that the election observers sent by the federal government are not carrying out their role neutrally - and could instead suspect election fraud where there is none.
As a result, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, could refuse to swear in newly elected members of Parliament on January 3, 2027 - then the USA would finally be in a constitutional crisis.
