Probable tax plus arouses desire

The German economy has been weakening for years. This is not just a problem for the federal government. Recently, Federal Minister of Economics Katherina Reiche was able to announce good news: the bottom has been overcome. "The German economy is growing again."

The federal government is now expecting growth of 1.3 percent this year. This is significantly more than predicted in the spring. And the economy will probably grow more strongly in the coming year.

Thorsten Rudolph, budget spokesman for the SPD in the Bundestag, says that higher tax revenues can also be expected as a result. Christian Haase, chief budget officer of the CDU and CSU, tells the ARD capital studio that he is “quite excited” about the upcoming tax estimate. "It could be that next year tax revenue will be higher than planned."

Chancellor wants to reduce electricity tax for everyone

Possibly more tax revenue - that has also been reached by the Chancellor. Friedrich Merz has an idea for how the money should be spent. He and his party, the CDU, want to ensure that "financial leeway in the budget is used to relieve the burden on people." Merz wants to reduce the “electricity tax for everyone to the European minimum”.

The CDU/CSU and SPD announced this in the coalition agreement. But last year there was no money. The government coalition decided to initially only reduce electricity tax for around 600,000 companies in the manufacturing sector and agriculture and forestry. According to Chancellor Merz's plan, that should change. A reduction in electricity taxes for everyone would cost around five billion euros a year. This scope could exist “if growth solidifies and becomes more stable,” said the Chancellor.

Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is skeptical: In principle he won't say no, but one shouldn't always just demand. “You then have to say, how do you want to do it? I’m looking forward to the Union’s financing proposals,” says Klingbeil.

Does the debt rule throw a spanner in the works for Merz?

So far, the Chancellor and the Union have pointed to the likely increase in taxes. The budget experts in the Bundestag also expect a plus. But they also point to the economic component of the debt brake laid down in the Basic Law: "If the economy is bad, the state can take on more debt, but if the economy is better, it can take on less," explains CDU politician Haase.

Because the economy is growing faster, the federal government can plan for less debt for the 2027 budget than was thought in the spring. Haase predicts that this will eat up a large part of the additional tax revenue at the federal level. SPD householder Rudolph also expects “no new scope from the tax estimate”. He also says: He gives additional income, but this is compensated for by the fact that the federal government is allowed to take out fewer loans due to the debt rule.

The bottom line is that householders are expecting a small increase at best. That is unlikely to be enough to reduce electricity taxes. In addition, there are further, expensive desires in the coalition with a view to the budget for the coming year. For example, with income tax reform, housing and parental benefits.

The result of the tax estimate will be published on Thursday. It will then be clear whether and, if so, how much more tax revenue the federal government can expect.