How Merz fell into the Söder trap and found himself on the defensive again

The Chancellor took his time – a lot of time. For weeks, Friedrich Merz remained conspicuously reserved when asked who the Union wanted to send into the race for the next federal presidential election. Now it should be Ilse Aigner. Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder brought his CSU colleague into play.

According to information from CDU circles, the fact that the decision took so long to come also had to do with a failed agreement within the Union: Actually, the issue surrounding Steinmeier's successor should be dealt with within the party and not discussed publicly at all. But then the Bavarian Prime Minister intervened.

Merz actually hoped to be able to postpone a final decision on a candidate until the end of the year. The CDU leader did not even want to commit to the fact that the Federal President's office should be held by a woman in the future.

Possible candidates were discussed. But those who have been publicly traded as possible candidates in recent weeks apparently never played a serious role, it continues. Karin Prien, Ines Claus and Julia Klöckner were therefore only fictitious names. In fact, a few dozen other people were discussed, but their names were never made public, including Aigner. It is impossible to explain why Merz has now switched to the CSU candidate.

However, one thing is clear: Markus Söder broke the previous agreements with his proposal. According to party circles, his public initiative caused “significant discontent” within the party. However, there was not enough public criticism in the CDU.

Merz himself also did not react to the public advances of his Bavarian counterpart - he did not want to be driven by Söder and therefore let the debate run its course for the time being. But at some point the Chancellor came under pressure to act.

Merz didn't start the discussion earlier because he couldn't communicate well, according to the party's assessment. Instead of actively controlling the personnel issue, he let it develop. The result: Söder was able to increasingly dominate the public debate about his candidacy, while the Chancellor went on the defensive.

Apparently the CSU leader also had a political role model in mind: Sigmar Gabriel. When the then SPD leader and economics minister was doing poorly in the polls in 2016 and had been toying with the position of foreign minister for some time, a certain Frank-Walter Steinmeier blocked this position. Gabriel brought the SPD man into the game for the office and elegantly praised him. When Steinmeier was finally nominated for the office of Federal President, Gabriel had the opportunity to take over the Foreign Ministry himself a short time later.

Merz may have underestimated a similar dynamic in the dispute with Söder. The CSU chairman is apparently under considerable pressure himself after the local elections, where the CSU received 32.5 percent of the vote nationwide - the party's second worst result in local elections since 1952.

Söder consciously accepted that he would have to abandon the restraint he had agreed with his sister party on the issue of the Federal President. As district chairwoman of the CSU Upper Bavaria and President of the Bavarian State Parliament, Aigner has an extremely strong position of her own in Bavarian politics.

The 61-year-old is firmly anchored in state politics and, if necessary, could immediately replace Markus Söder as Prime Minister. A danger that Söder now apparently considers to be at least realistic. Söder should also not have missed the fact that Aigner was briefly considered a possible candidate in the last federal presidential election.

For the CSU chairman, the personnel could become a win-win situation. If Aigner actually becomes Federal President, Söder can present himself as her kingmaker. If her candidacy fails or if she is politically damaged by the process, this could weaken her position as a possible competitor in Bavaria. Söder would have one less rival.

Tactically, Söder pursued his interests, according to CDU circles. However, he would risk additional dissatisfaction in his sister party - once again Merz was publicly paraded on a personnel issue. However, the CSU is ultimately more important to Söder than consideration for the Chancellor.

Astonishing: Despite the public humiliation, Söder's chances of becoming chancellor have not been reduced by Aigner's personnel decision, it is even said in the CDU. Should the situation one day actually be so critical that the Union only trusts Söder to turn things around, it is apparently even conceivable for the CDU to have two CSU politicians in the two most powerful offices in the country.

Nikolaus Doll reports on the Union parties and the federal states in the east.