Will UAE see heavy rain? NCM explains 96% El Niño forecast for coming months

Abu Dhabi: The UAE's National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast a 96 per cent probability that El Niño will persist from November 2026 to March 2027, with sea surface temperatures potentially rising to an exceptional 3.8°C above normal.

However, the centre stressed that the strength of the climate phenomenon does not necessarily mean the UAE will experience heavy rainfall.

In a post on X, the NCM explained that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years. It is neither a storm nor a hurricane, but develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above their usual levels.

The centre said the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation indicate that sea surface temperatures in the region used to monitor El Niño could reach 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, signalling that the phenomenon could intensify to exceptional levels.

For the UAE and the Arabian Gulf region, the NCM said El Niño's influence would be indirect, affecting wind patterns and the movement of low-pressure systems, which in turn could influence rainfall.

It added that there was a 96 per cent probability of the phenomenon continuing from November 2026 through March 2027, with its effects potentially extending into April.

Seasonal forecasts suggest that temperatures and rainfall in the UAE could remain near or above their usual averages during this period.

The NCM emphasised that the intensity of El Niño alone does not necessarily lead to heavy rainfall in the country, clarifying that the 96 per cent figure refers to the likelihood of the phenomenon persisting, not the probability of rainfall in the UAE.