As summer draws to a close, it is becoming increasingly clear how severely the extreme heat has affected the economy. Estimates suggest losses of up to 42 billion euros for the German economy.
Heat and drought-related crop failures and low river levels had a particularly negative impact. But damage to health and a generally lower performance of employees during the heat waves also played a role.
EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen has just estimated the damage to the EU's agricultural sector due to heat, drought and fires at 14 to 17 billion euros. According to the harvest balance, the amount of grain harvested in Germany fell by 7.3 percent compared to the previous year.
Lindt sells less chocolate due to heat
Lindt & Sprüngli shares fell to an annual low in Zurich today because the chocolate company had to lower its sales forecast again. Instead of four to six percent, the Swiss are now expecting two percent growth in the best case scenario.
On the one hand, crop failures in West Africa have caused cocoa and chocolate prices to rise sharply in recent years, to which consumers have reacted "price-sensitively". According to the Federal Statistical Office, a bar of chocolate was on average 69 percent more expensive in August than in 2020. In addition, consumers buy chocolate significantly less during periods of extreme heat.
There are also occasional winners
Because of the low water levels, many German industrial companies had to wait for intermediate products or switch to more expensive road transport, which temporarily slowed the ongoing economic recovery.
However, a few winners from the hot summer can still be identified on the stock market. These benefit from price distortions or changes in consumer behavior. Südzucker, for example, increased its forecasts yesterday due to the increased sugar and ethanol prices. The latter also rose due to crop failures for raw materials such as sugar cane, corn and wheat.
Today, the Hornbach hardware store group reported brilliant half-year figures. Sales climbed by six percent to 3.8 billion euros in the first six months of the 2026/27 financial year. The adjusted operating result (EBIT) increased by almost five percent to 285.6 million euros.
The main reason for this was the strong demand for seasonal products such as air conditioning units, but also items for shading and irrigation. Hornbach said that they were able to gain market share in Germany and other European countries. Despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the group confirmed its forecast for the full year.
DAX investors rely on diplomacy
Confidence also dominates the overall market: According to the Iranian foreign minister, negotiations are continuing with the USA, this time about the Gulf state of Qatar. This news pushed the DAX into positive territory this morning. By the early afternoon, the leading German index had gained 0.8 percent to 25,590 points.
