Let's start with Iran
The latest calculations from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are very specific. The war with Iran has already cost the United States approximately $38 billion. The Pentagon's inspector general told Congress that the war with Iran has led to shortages of strategic stockpiles and revealed how slowly American industry is able to replenish them.
The first quarterly report to the U.S. Congress regarding Operation Epic Fury talks about war spending close to $34 billion. It goes without saying that if the conflict continues, each subsequent month could cost American taxpayers another two to three billion.
Money is only part of the problem. The Americans used huge amounts of expensive ammunition. The US Congressional Budget Office warns that it could take up to five years to rebuild stockpiles of some types of weapons. This raises another question in Washington: What if another major crisis occurs during this time? For example, in the Pacific, around Taiwan? The Pentagon assures that the American military has the resources needed to carry out its tasks.
However, the office's report shows that the prolonged conflict is beginning to have a real price - not only financial, but also strategic. 18 American soldiers have already died in the war.
And there is something else that may be more important to the average American than the number of missiles in the Pentagon's warehouses. Gasoline price. The war with Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have hit the global energy market. More expensive energy drives inflation. When the price of fuel increases, Americans see foreign policy not on television, but on the screen of the gas pump. This is where war can become an electoral issue. Because Donald Trump won the election, among other things, by promising to make life in America cheaper.
Now let's look at Ukraine
The situation here is completely different, but the political problem for the White House is of a similar nature.
Donald Trump has argued for years that he can end this war. Today, Russia and Ukraine are still at war. And in Washington, instead of announcing a peace agreement, Congress is preparing another tool of pressure on Moscow. This shows how far we are from simply ending the war.
And now let's put all these elements together.
Iran. Ukraine. Russia. Expensive oil. Inflation. The rising costs of war. And congressional elections on November 3.
Donald Trump wanted this election to be a referendum on his presidency. Yesterday he went to North Carolina, where he campaigned for one of the Republican candidates.
This is his first big campaign rally after the Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, and the beginning of an intense campaign before the November vote.
The Republican problem is visible in the polls
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, 35 percent of Americans evaluate Donald Trump's job positively. When asked which party voters would support in congressional elections, 44 percent choose Democrats and 37 percent choose Republicans.
This is, of course, a snapshot of the mood in one particular survey, not a prediction of the election result. However, it shows where Republicans are starting the final weeks of the campaign.
That's why the next few weeks will be so interesting.
Because the elections to Congress will probably not be decided by the inhabitants of Tehran, Moscow or Kiev. They will be decided by Americans in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and other states.
Many of them may ask much simpler questions.
How much does petrol cost? How much do purchases cost? How much is the loan installment? Is the country safer? And did Donald Trump actually deliver on what he promised? Therefore, the greatest political threat to the White House may not be the war in Ukraine or the war with Iran itself. The problem will arise when Americans start to connect world events with what is happening in their own wallets.
Donald Trump promised to be a president of peace
Today, less than seven weeks before the elections, the war in Ukraine continues. The war with Iran has already cost tens of billions of dollars. Energy is expensive. Inflation remains a problem. And Republicans must defend their power in Congress.
And perhaps that's why, in the final weeks of this campaign, the most important foreign policy question will actually be a domestic policy question: Will global crises begin to put Donald Trump to the test here in the United States?
It is worth recalling another symbol of Donald Trump's ambition.
At the beginning of the year, the president established his own Peace Council - the Board of Peace. In February, during her first meeting in Washington, Trump said her task could be described in one word: "peace." He argued then that his administration had already ended eight wars and was working on further agreements. The council was supposed to deal primarily with the future of Gaza, but Trump presented it as an institution with much greater ambitions - capable of playing a role in resolving world conflicts.
Today, this image is worth comparing with reality. Hardly anyone remembers this advice anymore. Russia's war against Ukraine continues, and the United States itself is engaged in a protracted conflict with Iran.
