By the end of the 21st century, drylands may occupy more than 40% of the Earth's landmass

By the end of the 21st century, drylands could cover more than 40 percent of the Earth's land mass, not including Antarctica. This was reported by scientists whose work was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL).

The researchers used climate models and meteorological data from 1960 to 2023 to estimate the extent of dry regions. Now, according to their calculations, they occupy about 38.6 percent of the land. By 2071–2100, this share could rise to 39.3–40.3 percent, depending on greenhouse gas emissions.

In the worst-case scenario, the area of ​​drylands would increase by approximately 2.37 million square kilometers, an area comparable to Algeria. Particularly noticeable changes are expected in Australia and Brazil, as well as in parts of Africa. In this case, territories with extremely dry climates can expand most quickly.

Scientists warn that further drying out of regions could increase water scarcity, ecosystem degradation and desertification. At the same time, an increase in carbon dioxide concentration may slow down this process slightly: with an increased level of CO2, plants lose less water through their leaves. However, this is projected to be insufficient to stop the global expansion of drylands.