Ibn Haldun University, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Lecturer Dr. Gökhan Ereli wrote about the recent military escalation in Yemen and the changing field balances for AA Analysis.
The military escalation in the Yemen crisis in recent weeks and the comprehensive advance initiated by the legitimate government forces supported by Saudi Arabia have fundamentally shaken the balance of power in the field. Until a few months ago, the main backbone of the conflict was a process of attrition in which the parties tested each other with asymmetric methods. The Houthis have pursued a strategy that suppresses the Gulf and global logistics chains by targeting navigation in the Babulmandeb Strait and the Red Sea rather than direct frontal attacks. However, the latest news from the field showed that the conflicts have intensified again with all their violence and the military initiative on the field has changed strongly in favor of the legitimate government.
The status quo on the front lines in Yemen was disrupted in favor of the legitimate government with the violent clashes. The Houthis' moves, which threatened strategic supply corridors on the western coast in recent weeks, were broken by a large-scale and determined land offensive launched by Saudi Arabia-backed forces. Regular troops loyal to the legitimate authority Presidential Leadership Council (CLK) Chairman Rashad al-Ulaymi left their defensive position and went on the offensive; It made progress in the Haifan and Tur al-Baha axis and pushed the Houthis back.
The extent of the conflicts in recent days has gone far beyond local positional battles. Coalition elements led by Saudi Arabia ended the operational silence and targeted strategic command and control facilities and telecommunication infrastructures in Sanaa and Saada. Saudi Arabia and the legitimate government inflicted serious losses on the Houthis in Yemen for the first time in a long time. This intense fire support provided by the coalition from the air paved the way for the legitimate government's rapid advance in the fierce ground clashes in the field. This military escalation also triggered a new displacement crisis affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians, according to data from United Nations (UN) humanitarian aid organizations.
The effectiveness of military operations is shaped by Yemen's harsh and fragmented topography. The Houthis' past efforts to expand from the Muha axis on the Red Sea coast towards the Hanish Islands, Meyyun Island and Zubab line stemmed from their quest to maximize their surveillance and strike capabilities on international shipping. However, as a result of fierce battles, the legitimate government forces backed by Saudi Arabia made great progress and completely recaptured Muha and Zubab from the Houthis. The Houthi pressure, which had the potential to directly hostage global maritime traffic along the coastline, was broken when the legitimate government seized these strategic points.
The military sustainability of the coastline depends on the control of the high-altitude topographic barriers behind this strip. The mountainous extensions of Lahij province are seen as natural defensive positions that offer operational depth to coastal troops. Yemeni legitimate government forces support this new advance on the coast by holding critical elevations such as Jabal Habashi and maintain supply arteries to the temporary capital Aden. This sharp operational interdependence between coastal and mountain terrain once again demonstrated the importance of land dominance.
The final direction of the war is determined by the necessary relationship between the pressure capacity on the sea and terrestrial control. The presence that the Houthis are trying to establish on the coast remains in an extremely fragile structure, as it cannot be reinforced with supply lines from the interior regions. In this context, the attacks of government troops, which resulted in the recapture of Zubab and Muha, succeeded in paralyzing the Houthis' sea pressure mechanism from land. While one side focused on extracting concessions from the international system by disrupting global maritime trade, the legitimate government took control of these strategic nodes on land and severely limited the Houthis' asymmetrical superiority. Tactical gains on the coast quickly melt away unless supported by land depth behind; The expulsion of the Houthis from the coast and the transfer of these places to the legitimate government directly proves this fact on the ground.
The increase in range and hit accuracy of the Houthis' missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles has left the Gulf's conventional air defense architecture facing a structural impasse. In this context, the Houthi threat to critical oil facilities, airports and civilian settlements was causing the defense expenditures of the Gulf capitals to face unsustainable cost pressure. However, the latest escalation in the field and the determined advance supported by Saudi Arabia showed that the geoeconomic blackmail power offered by the sea has receded in the face of the military realities imposed by terrestrial geography. The Yemen crisis has entered a new phase in which the military initiative has been reshaped, directly affecting the regional security architecture.
This new military reality will directly shape the search for a permanent political solution in Yemen. The legitimate government's regaining initiative on the ground and consolidating its dominance in strategic coastlines has the potential to weaken the Houthis' negotiating position at the table. While the Houthis have so far used their military capacity as a tool of diplomatic blackmail, they now face the risk of shrinking sea access, which is one of their most important leverages. For Saudi Arabia, this progress represents a critical threshold in terms of ensuring border security and re-establishing regional deterrence. As a result, as the center of gravity of the war in Yemen transforms, the reflections of this military change on the field to the diplomatic process will be one of the main factors that will determine the future of the entire Gulf geopolitics.
