IEA has published its annual Renewable Energy 2026 report.
Accordingly, the large-scale energy supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East enables countries to focus more on domestic resources.
Renewable energy sources, which were growing at a record pace before the current energy crisis began, are expected to experience strong growth in a wider group of countries around the world in the coming years as governments look to strengthen energy security, reduce dependence on imported fuels and reduce exposure to fluctuating prices.
It is predicted that global renewable energy capacity will increase by approximately 4,800 gigawatts in the 2026-2031 period. This level is approximately 60 percent more than the capacity added in the previous 6-year period, and more than three-quarters of the increase in global renewable energy capacity by 2031 is expected to come from solar energy, followed by onshore wind energy.
Unprecedented disruptions in global energy markets since the war that started on February 28 with US and Israeli attacks on Iran, stronger policy support and growing energy security concerns are driving a faster expansion of renewable energy capacity across India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
During the forecast period, the renewable energy capacity to be commissioned in emerging and developing economies other than China is expected to reach the same level as the capacity to be commissioned in developed economies for the first time.
Emerging and developing economies are projected to add approximately 1,100 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, approximately on par with the increase in developed economies.
It is estimated that China will contribute approximately 2,550 gigawatts. China will continue to be the largest contributor to the increase in global renewable energy capacity. However, due to changes in renewable energy policies, China's share is estimated to decrease from over 60 percent in 2025 to an average of 53 percent during the forecast period.
India stands out as the world's second largest growth market for renewable energy, with total renewable energy capacity expected to more than double by 2031.
Growth is also accelerating in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is estimated that the renewable energy capacity to be added in these regions in the 2026-2031 period will approximately triple compared to the previous 6-year period.
On the other hand, delays in connecting to the grid continue to be a significant problem. The capacity of projects awaiting grid connection around the world increased by 60 percent last year. The total capacity of the pending projects corresponds to 4 times the wind and solar energy capacity connected to the grids in the same period.
There is a risk that grid constraints will slow growth in developed economies.
Renewable energy is expected to meet 6 percent of the energy demand in the global transportation sector by 2031.
"A NEW ERA IS STARTING IN THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY"
In his evaluation of the report, IEA President Fatih Birol stated that the main policy priority behind the growth of renewable energy in the past was environmental concerns and said, "The decrease in costs has made renewable energy a competitive option in many markets. However, today the spread of renewable energy is mainly driven by energy security concerns because more and more countries are trying to reduce their dependence on imported fuels. A new era is beginning in the growth story of renewable energy, and this story has a truly global character." he said.
Noting that the use of renewable energy technologies has exceeded its prevalence in major markets and spread to every corner of the world, Birol said, "This makes renewable energy one of the main pillars of the global electricity sector. Renewable resources today meet one-third of the electricity production worldwide, and this rate is expected to approach half in the next 5 years." made his assessment.
