Year-End Inflation Expectations Increased

The August survey was conducted between 10-12 August 2026. A total of 68 participants from financial and real sector representatives responded to the survey. 52 of the participants were representatives of the financial sector and 16 were representatives of the real sector. Market participants' year-end inflation expectations increased from 29.21 percent to 29.43 percent. While the CPI expectation after 12 months decreased from 23.95 percent to 23.69 percent, the inflation expectation after 24 months increased from 17.83 percent to 18.03 percent.

According to the survey results, monthly inflation expectations for the next three months were recorded as 1.67 percent, 2.08 percent and 1.97 percent, respectively.

WHAT ARE THE INTEREST EXPECTATIONS?

Market participants' expectation of the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market remained at 40 percent. CBRT's policy rate expectation for the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September was 37 percent. Expectations for subsequent meetings are at 36.13 percent in the second meeting and 35.25 percent in the third meeting.

In the survey results, the current year-end policy rate expectation was 35.25 percent, 12 months ahead expectation was 29.59 percent, next year end expectation was 26.34 percent and 24 months ahead expectation was 21.89 percent.

DOLLAR/TL ESTIMATE

Market participants' year-end dollar/TL expectations also changed upwards. The current year-end dollar/TL expectation, which was 51.55 TL in the previous survey, increased to 51.66 TL. The dollar/TL expectation after 12 months increased from 56.69 TL to 57.43 TL. In the survey, the current account balance expectation for 2026 was recorded as a deficit of 50.2 billion dollars. The current account deficit expectation for next year was 44.4 billion dollars.