Asian markets and European futures rallied Monday following a tentative US-Iran peace agreement, which is expected to ease global inflation and reduce central bank rate hike pressure. Oil prices dropped significantly, with Brent crude falling 4.7% to $83.24 a barrel.
Asian markets and European futures surged, while oil prices dropped significantly following a tentative peace agreement between the US and Iran. The deal is expected to ease global inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the need for further interest rate hikes by central banks.
Uluslararası finans kuruluşları Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan, TCMB'nin para politikası adımlarını değerlendirdi. Her iki kurum da mevcut koşullarda yeni bir faiz artışının düşük ihtimal olduğunu belirtti. Goldman Sachs, yıl sonuna kadar faizin değişmeyeceğini öngörürken, JPMorgan metindeki güvercin tona dikkat çekti.
US Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% in May year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2023. The reading complicates the Fed's outlook, with traders expecting rate hikes, pressuring crypto prices.
Fitch Ratings has raised Türkiye's year-end 2026 inflation forecast to 29.5% from 25%, expecting monetary policy to remain tight this year. The agency also increased its 2026 growth forecast to 2.8% and 2027 forecast to 4.4%.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is meeting to decide on the repo rate, with most economists expecting it to remain at 5.25% due to inflation and growth challenges from the West Asia conflict.
Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, a move aligned with market expectations. Inflation in May was 3.1% year-on-year, lower than anticipated, easing pressure on the RPP. Analysts predict rate stabilization through 2026 and potentially 2027.
Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that political interference in monetary policy could permanently destroy public trust in the central bank. Accepting the JFK Profile in Courage award, Powell stated the Fed is undergoing a "stress test" amid the Trump administration's challenges to its independence, referencing the ongoing Supreme Court case regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook's attempted firing.
Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell defended the independence of monetary policy, warning that politicization would erode public trust and economic stability. He accepted the JFK Profile in Courage Award, implicitly referencing President Trump's pressure campaign and threats to remove Fed officials.
US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller believes dollar-backed stablecoins could increase the global influence of US monetary policy, while Bank of England's Megan Greene predicts tokenized deposits will supersede stablecoins. The debate impacts US crypto legislation.
The European Central Bank cautioned EU finance ministers against expanding euro stablecoin issuance, citing risks to bank lending and monetary policy. The ECB's stance opposes proposals from think tank Bruegel aimed at boosting the euro stablecoin market.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new leader of the US Federal Reserve on Friday, a pivotal moment for monetary policy and the American economy. Accompanied by his wife, Jane Lauder, Warsh took the oath administered by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to discuss economic policies. Kishida requested Ueda to implement appropriate monetary policy in line with government initiatives on inflation, crisis management, and growth investment. They also exchanged views on the Middle East situation and market conditions.
Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed chair will be remembered for defending the institution's independence against President Trump's attacks, despite mixed economic outcomes.
For an indication of how much the energy crisis is shaping the path of monetary policy, look no further than Australia. On May 5, the country’s central bank raised interest rates for the third consecutive time, unwinding last year’s monetary easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said “higher fuel prices are adding to inflation and there are indications that this is likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly”. The RBA’s decision to keep tightening...
Monetary policy trade-offs are getting worse. The Reserve Bank of Australia is confronting rising inflation and downgraded growth forecasts. And there's nothing it can really do about it.
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's vague proposals for a new 'Fed/Treasury accord' have raised concerns among former central bank officials. Critics fear the plan could compromise the Fed's independence and limit its ability to manage its balance sheet during financial crises.
Economist Bai Chongen argues that China's status as a middle-income country with a massive population and strong commercialization capabilities distinguishes it from Japan's economic trajectory.
The Bank of England has kept interest rates at 3.75% but warned that future increases may be necessary as the Middle East conflict drives up energy costs. The MPC voted 8-1 to hold rates for the third consecutive meeting, with only chief economist Huw Pill dissenting. Governor Andrew Bailey said higher inflation is unavoidable, with worst-case scenarios showing inflation could peak at 6% and rates might need to rise to 5.25%. UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March, with energy bills expected to rise 16% to £1,900 by summer.
The Bank of England has warned UK households to prepare for higher inflation driven by the Middle East conflict, with mortgage repayments set to rise by £80 monthly and food price inflation potentially hitting 4.6% by autumn. Overall inflation is expected to peak above 3.5% by year-end, rising more than a percentage point above pre-war forecasts. In a worst-case scenario with oil at $130/barrel, inflation could exceed 6% and interest rates may need to rise by 1.5 percentage points to 5.25%. The MPC kept rates unchanged, citing weakness in the UK economy, though markets have already priced in the equivalent of two rate rises.
The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey warning that higher inflation is unavoidable due to the Middle East conflict. The MPC, which has cut rates six times since mid-2024, outlined three scenarios where inflation could rise to between 3.3% and 6.2%, with unemployment reaching 5.5-5.6% and rates needing to rise to between 4.25% and 5.25%. UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March. The decision provides relief to the Labour government before local elections next week.
The Bank of England kept interest rates at 3.75% but warned of inevitable hikes later this year as Middle East conflict drives inflation higher. The MPC voted 8-1 to hold, with only chief economist Huw Pill dissenting. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March. The Bank outlined three scenarios where unemployment could reach 5.5-5.6% and rates might climb to 5.25%.
Whitbread is cutting 3,800 jobs in the UK and Ireland, representing 12% of its workforce, as it transitions to a pure hotel business. The move follows increased tax burdens from the 2025 budget and pressure from activist investors.
Bai Chongen is a prominent Chinese economist and government adviser. He is the dean of Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and serves concurrently as vice-chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. From 2015 to 2018, he was a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee. This interview took place during the “two sessions” – the annual meetings of China’s top legislature and advisory body – which Bai was attending as a member of the...
