
AI-generated summary
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached a stalemate, and Russia has turned to launching hybrid warfare in Europe through proxies and intelligence agencies, including disinformation, cyberattacks, arson and infrastructure destruction, aiming to undermine social stability without triggering NATO's Article 5 collective defense mechanism.
(Central News Agency, Brussels, comprehensive foreign news report on the 6th) Defense and intelligence officials warned that Europe's NATO members have failed to effectively deter Russia from launching a "hybrid war" against Europe. Countries must quickly develop new methods to contain Moscow, otherwise they may risk escalating conflicts.
The Financial Times reported that officials said that an attempted drone attack last month carrying military-grade explosives at Germany's Leipzig-Halle Airport highlighted the failure of Russia to effectively curb its aggressive actions against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the inadequacy of existing deterrence measures. Officials pointed out that European governments must take collective action to respond.
This attack, which almost led to serious consequences, also made Europe more alert that Russia is intensifying its "hybrid warfare" against Europe; NATO also failed to effectively prevent Russia from launching attacks that would not trigger the "Article 5" collective defense mechanism.
A senior Western defense official said: "We are clearly not doing enough to deter provocative actions below the Article 5 threshold. Our deterrence capabilities are sufficient to prevent Russia from escalating traditional military and nuclear conflicts, but we do need to rethink the way we deal with hybrid warfare."
As the Russian regular army and Ukrainian forces are locked in a stalemate, Russian proxies and intelligence agencies have also been waging a secret war of aggression in Europe over the past two years, including spreading false news, launching cyber attacks, setting fire to warehouses, targeting the homes and cars of politicians, and cutting or damaging submarine cables.
Such operations are typical of what military theorists call "hybrid" conflicts. They are often low-cost, difficult to trace, and carried out by spies or other forces. They are designed to destabilize society without crossing the threshold of a traditional armed invasion or attack.
Another senior Western official said that last week Berlin formally identified the Leipzig airport attack as being carried out by Russia. The incident was seen as a turning point and had a "very, very serious impact" on the capitals of European NATO member states. The official said discussions were continuing at the "highest levels" to develop a long-term and sustainable response.
After U.S. President Trump took office, the direction of Russia policy has changed, which has also made NATO's calculations more complicated. Former President Joe Biden's administration had firmly warned Moscow not to attack NATO, while Trump sought to downplay the threat posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
European intelligence agencies are bracing for an increase in Russia's "nuisance" attacks, including deliberate destruction of civilian targets, sowing chaos and even arson, officials said. These actions may coincide with a series of key elections in France, Italy and Poland next year.
Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank, said, "The question is what level of attack would trigger Article 5. The line is quite blurry... If we don't make Russia pay a price, they will continue to push their limits."
A senior official from a NATO frontline country pointed out that "we have obviously seen an increase in Russia's willingness to take risks and an increase in recklessness" and that Russian-related activities have reached "unprecedented levels."
The official said the "below-threshold" attacks allowed Moscow to continually test the boundaries. "We cannot let this become the new normal," he stressed.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
European NATO member states will continue to discuss and develop long-term and sustainable hybrid warfare responses at the highest levels
Very likely · Within months
Russia’s hybrid warfare operations in Europe will continue to increase, especially in conjunction with key election periods
Likely · Within months
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