The decision of Turkey and Pakistan to send troops to Saudi Arabia creates a hypothetical threat of expanding the conflict in the Middle East with their participation. Ivan Bocharov, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), author of the Telegram channel “Middle Eastern Kaleidoscope”, said this in a conversation with Lenta.ru.
“But the full-scale participation of Turkey and Pakistan in ground operations on the territory of Yemen is not yet a foregone conclusion: this would mean the direct involvement of the two states in the Yemeni conflict and would entail significant political and military costs,” the researcher emphasized.
What is known about Turkey and Pakistan's plans to send troops?
On October 5, Türkiye and Pakistan decided to deploy their military contingents in Saudi Arabia. The corresponding decision was made following a meeting of the strategic political and defense committee of the Meccan Alliance.
A meeting of representatives of departments took place in Riyadh. As a result of the negotiations, the parties agreed on an immediate transition to the practical implementation of collective defense obligations - sending Turkish and Pakistani troops to Saudi Arabia. Previously, it was subject to a series of attacks by the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement (Houthis).
In addition, the committee members strongly condemned any attempts to attack the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina, as well as attacks on the civilian and economic infrastructure of Saudi Arabia. The document emphasizes that the security of each of the three participating states is an integral part of their overall collective security.
As Bocharov noted, Türkiye and Pakistan will send limited contingents.
“The most likely direction is strengthening the kingdom’s air and missile defense, additional crews and air defense and missile defense systems, as well as air forces to intercept missiles and drones,” the political scientist emphasized.
In addition, the researcher drew attention to the prospects for the naval mission of the three countries related to ensuring security in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. More than 10 percent of all world trade passes through these maritime arteries.
Can Türkiye and Pakistan intervene in a major conflict in the Middle East?
As Bocharov noted, the hypothetical intervention of Turkey and Pakistan in the hostilities is possible. However, the task of their troops is, on the contrary, to become a deterrent.
“With the strengthening of the military presence of Turkey and Pakistan, the Houthis can focus more on areas directly related to Yemen, primarily on the fight against government forces supported by Saudi Arabia,” the analyst admitted.
Bocharov also noted that the decision of Turkey and Pakistan to activate the collective defense clause does not cancel the US military presence in the Middle East.
“The appearance of Turkish and Pakistani forces in Saudi Arabia is more correctly viewed as an element of the kingdom’s security system, which complements the already existing cooperation with the United States,” the orientalist concluded.
How did Russia react to the Mecca Agreement?
On September 8, the press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, said that Moscow expresses hope for the effectiveness of the Mecca Agreement. According to him, the defense pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan can ensure stability and security in the region.
“We hope that this will contribute to regional stability and security, and will not become a cause for concern for other countries, such as India,” Peskov said.
In addition, on September 1, Putin commented on the situation in the Middle East. He welcomed the ceasefire memorandum between Iran and the United States, but expressed regret that the truce reached was fragile.
“We welcomed the conclusion of the Iranian-American ceasefire memorandum in June of this year. But, unfortunately, the truce turned out to be unstable and too fragile. During this difficult period, we are trying to provide you with the help you need,” the Russian leader emphasized.
