(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Trade statistics released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 10 showed that in October this year, China's exports denominated in US dollars surged by 35.2% year-on-year, higher than the 33.5% expected by the market; imports surged by 41.6% year-on-year, the fastest growth rate in the past five and a half years, higher than the estimated 33.9%, with a trade surplus of nearly US$105.3 billion.
As a result, China's total import and export value in the first ten months of this year reached US$6.52 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. Among them, exports were US$3.78 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%; imports were US$2.74 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29%; the trade surplus was US$1.04 trillion. This is the second consecutive year since 2025 that China has exceeded the $1 trillion trade surplus mark.
In RMB terms, China's exports last month increased by 28.7% year-on-year, imports increased by 34.7% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was nearly 712.8 billion yuan; the total import and export value in the first ten months of this year was 44.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Among them, exports were 25.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6%; imports were 18.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.6%; the trade surplus was 7.16 trillion yuan.
AI boom brings export growth
The main driver of China's export growth is AI-related products. Since the beginning of this year, the world has accelerated the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure, bringing unprecedented demand for high-tech products. From January to October, China's exports of chips and computer parts contributed about 40% of the year-on-year increase in export value. In the first ten months of this year, China's semiconductor exports increased by 111.1% year-on-year, and the overall export of high-tech products increased by 47.9%.
The main driving force behind the highest import growth rate since 2021 in October came from the significant rebound in crude oil imports. Data show that China’s crude oil imports in October were close to 42 million tons, the highest level since March this year. Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China also showed that from January to October, the growth rates of China’s imported automatic data processing equipment, machine parts, and integrated circuits were 135.7% and 65.1% respectively.
Experts predict that based on the current trend, China is expected to exceed the record trade surplus of US$1.2 trillion set last year in 2026. “We expect China’s exports to remain strong through the rest of the year, led by electronics and automobiles,” said Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
trade imbalance problem
At the same time, pressure is growing on China to achieve a balanced trade. Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis, pointed out that due to overcapacity in many industries, high domestic savings and weak domestic demand, China still prefers to sell goods overseas; at the same time, some countries are taking measures to protect their own industries.
From January to October this year, China's top three export markets were ASEAN, the EU and the United States. Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that in the first 10 months of this year, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 30.5% year-on-year, exports to the EU increased by 17.2%, and exports to the United States increased by 12.1%. The trade surplus with the United States was approximately US$266.5 billion; the trade surplus with the EU was US$320.8 billion.
In 2025, China's trade surplus with the EU will be approximately US$410 billion, averaging more than US$1.1 billion per day. EU leaders have strongly called for more trade restrictions on China and have reached an agreement with China to restrict the export of hybrid cars from China to the EU in the next few years. However, since these restrictions have not yet officially taken effect, relevant companies are expected to ship goods in advance, thus further pushing up export data in the short term.
On Monday, Beijing and Washington formally extended a "trade truce" agreement that was due to expire on Tuesday for two months. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen next week, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year. Broader economic relations and tariff policies will become the focus.
China's strong exports have helped offset weak domestic demand. China's economy is expected to reach Beijing's official annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% this year, slightly lower than last year's 5%. But analysts also believe that China's growing reliance on exports has made the Chinese economy more vulnerable to slowing global demand. Public opposition to the expansion of data centers and Democratic victories in the U.S. midterm elections have heightened concerns about the decline of the artificial intelligence industry, which may affect future exports of related products from China.
