The Taipei mayoral election continues to heat up. Yesterday, the People's Association and polling expert Dai Li'an released the latest poll. DPP candidate Shen Boyang and mayor Jiang Wanan, who is seeking re-election, are tied at 50-50. Media person Wu Jingyi pointed out that Jiang Wanan originally had the advantage of being the incumbent, but after Yin Wei fired the "three arrows" for Jiang Wanan, Jiang Wanan's support dropped from the lead to 1.2%. She also bluntly said that Jiang Wanan's biggest shortcoming and failure was to maintain a false and exposed perfect image, and was unwilling to admit mistakes for any municipal negligence.
Wu Jingyi pointed out in a Facebook post, how did Jiang Wanan reduce his lead to 1.2%? Yin Wei's "three arrows" helped Shen Boyang, and the more he shot, the better he became. He was scornful, and his political mobilization went from "eating poisonous oil" to overthrowing the cabinet, and the new policy of spending money continued to be controversial!
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Wu Jingyi said that the most important thing for Jiang Wanan to watch now is probably not who is doing the polling, but the numbers themselves. The latest public opinion poll showed that Jiang Wanan was 41.7% and Shen Boyang was 40.5%, only a difference of 1.2 percentage points, which is within the sampling error of ±3%. Jiang Wanan’s policy satisfaction was still 69.2% in the Zhen Media survey in January this year, and it was still 65.7% in June by the same agency. Different institutions cannot directly draw a downward curve, but from "nearly 70%" to just over 50% at the latest, it is at least a warning that must be taken seriously.
Wu Jingyi analyzed that the recent political operations of the Jiang Municipal Government are very similar to Yin Wei's "three arrows" of Yin Wei's clever plan for Jiang Wanan! The first arrow is the increasingly strong political label in the face of different opinions. When reporters asked about the latest polls and Cao Xingcheng, Jiang Wanan laughed and asked, "Is that Cao Xingcheng who was deposed?"; Zhang Shaodong, a bearded man, supported him and was boycotted by some netizens. Jiang Wanan immediately criticized him for "tearing society apart and creating hatred." He also said, "Some people are responsible for going out to fight, and I am responsible for eating braised pork rice." Wu Jingyi bluntly said that what is really worth testing is whether the mayor has consistent standards when facing different political positions. He spits everywhere and only keeps warm amid the collapse of blue and white support.
The second arrow is to promote the municipal chiefs to become national political warriors. During the China United Oil Products case, Jiang Wanan called on the public to "come to Kai Dao to fight against poisonous oil" and demanded that Lai Qingde apologize and Zhuo Rongtai step down. After Kai Dao, he publicly talked about overthrowing the government many times. Of course, food safety can be held accountable, but from food safety to street politics, and even the decision to retain the cabinet, the intensity of politics has far exceeded that of ordinary local governance offense and defense. If you don’t have the ability to take care of your own family, why would you go to someone else’s door and point fingers? Ridiculous!
The third arrow is a high-volume, high-budget New Deal, but it is constantly accompanied by implementation disputes. Various smoking areas in Taipei City were criticized after being launched, and were finally demolished under the order of Jiang Wanan; 8 shading facilities in Xinyi District cost 49.66 million yuan in engineering and 9.91 million yuan in design and construction supervision, totaling 59.67 million yuan; free and nutritious lunches were promoted, but there were continuous school food poisonings, and 3 blueberries were bigger than you! Wait for ridiculous achievements.
Wu Jingyi mentioned that the real trouble for Jiang Wanan is the generational structure. According to a TVBS survey in May this year, 60% of Jiang Wanan and 37% of Shen Boyang were 20 to 29 years old. However, in the latest public survey, it has become 20 to 29. 37.8% to 42.8% for those aged 30 to 39, 36.3% to 43.1% for those aged 30 to 39, 40.5% to 46.6% for those aged 40 to 49. Shen Boyang leads in all three age groups of 20 to 49. Wu Jingyi pointed out that the methods of the two polls are different, but for a mayor who has long established a political brand with a young and elite image, this structural signal is particularly noteworthy.
Wu Jingyi bluntly said that Jiang Wanan originally had the advantage of being the incumbent, so why did the election campaign enter such a close situation? Whether the "three arrows" hit Shen Boyang or caused Jiang Wanan to bear more political costs depends on subsequent polls by different organizations and changes in the voter structure. The answer is worthy of continued observation.
Wu Jingyi emphasized that Jiang Wanan’s biggest shortcoming and failure was to maintain a false and exposed perfect image and was unwilling to admit his mistakes for any municipal negligence. It is impossible for Taipei City citizens to like dead ducks and still be so tough-mouthed? Such a banner of the Kuomintang has long been made disgusting and dilapidated by a group of boy scouts such as Jiang Wanan, Yin Wei, and Xu Qiaoxin.
