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Back薔琵恐維持強颱1週！專家示警「4地」侵襲率達50％：機率上升中
薔琵恐維持強颱1週！專家示警「4地」侵襲率達50％：機率上升中
Urgent
自由时报1 hour agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView translation

薔琵恐維持強颱1週！專家示警「4地」侵襲率達50％：機率上升中

颱風薔琵林得恩暴風侵襲機率

Quick Look

颱風薔琵持續增強，未來120小時內暴風侵襲花蓮、宜蘭、台北、基隆地區機率均達50%以上且持續上升，專家指出其有機會打破今年強烈颱風維持強度最久紀錄。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

今年迄今西北太平洋及南海海域已生成29個颱風，數量超過年平均的25至26個，其中強烈颱風共有9個。

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颱風薔琵持續增強，未來動向備受關注。（擷自林老師氣象站臉書）

颱風薔琵持續增強，未來動向備受關注。國立台灣大學大氣科學博士林得恩指出，薔琵有機會打破今年強烈颱風維持強度最久的紀錄，可能超過6至7天；薔琵未來120小時暴風侵襲花蓮、宜蘭、台北、基隆地區的機率均達50%以上，且機率持續上升中。

林得恩在臉書粉專「林老師氣象站」發布貼文稱，薔琵來勢洶洶，今年迄今西北太平洋及南海海域已生成29個颱風，數量超過年平均的25至26個。其中，強烈颱風共有9個，分別為辛樂克、米克拉、巴威、白海豚、沙德爾、舒立基、彩雲、小熊，以及目前正朝台灣方向前進的薔琵。

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林得恩表示，薔琵甚至有機會打破今年強烈颱風維持強度最久的紀錄，持續時間可能超過6至7天，並可能打破今年直接影響台灣強颱的紀錄。

林得恩進一步指出，薔琵的強度仍在增強，暴風圈半徑也持續擴大。根據中央氣象署今（19）日凌晨2時最新氣象資料評估，未來120小時內，薔琵暴風侵襲花蓮、宜蘭、台北及基隆地區的機率均達50%或以上，而且機率仍持續上升。

林得恩提醒，根據過往實際觀測經驗，秋颱的路徑及強度變化通常最難掌握，目前距離可能受到颱風影響仍有一些時間，呼籲民眾儘速完成各項防颱整備工作。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 颱風薔琵有機會打破今年強烈颱風維持強度最久紀錄，持續時間可能超過6至7天

    Possible · Within days

  • 未來120小時內薔琵暴風侵襲花蓮、宜蘭、台北、基隆地區機率將持續上升

    Likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 颱風薔琵最終路徑將如何變化？
  • 是否會直接登陸台灣？
  • 各地防颱準備進度如何？

Related Topics

颱風薔琵
People林得恩
Organizations國立台灣大學中央氣象署林老師氣象站
Places花蓮宜蘭台北基隆
Topics林得恩暴風侵襲機率強烈颱風紀錄防颱整備
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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