Latest climate change research: Global regional warming may already be similar to a world warming by 1.5 °C

China News Service, Beijing, November 10 (Reporter Sun Zifa) A new paper published in Nature Climate Change, a professional academic journal of Springer Nature, states that a study shows that some areas around the world may have experienced about 90%–94% of the expected warming rate when the global average temperature rises by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and 65%–76% of the expected warming rate when the global average temperature rises by 2°C.

The research results, a collaboration between scholars at the University of Victoria in Canada and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China, show that there is no significant statistical difference between regional warming levels in 2025 and levels expected in a world with a warming of 1.5°C, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation measures in all regions.

Relevant schematic diagram of this research (picture from the paper). Photo courtesy Springer Nature

According to the paper, the Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and strive to limit warming to 1.5°C. However, these global limits translate into different levels of warming in different regions. In parts of Africa, South America, and the polar regions, historical temperature observations are sparse or even missing, making estimating regional changes in these areas particularly difficult.

In this study, the research team combined historical observations of surface air temperatures with simulations from multiple climate models to estimate externally driven warming relative to 1850–1900 for all 46 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regions covering all continents, and compared it with expected temperatures in these regions under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C. They found that by 2025, these regions are estimated to have experienced 90%–94% of the warming expected at 1.5°C of global mean warming, and 65%–76% of the expected warming at 2°C.

The authors of the paper believe that this research analysis shows that most of the regional warming can be attributed to human influence. Greenhouse gases are the main driver of warming in all regions, partially offset by the cooling effects of aerosols and other human influences.

Among them, the largest warming rate is in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with the Russian Arctic warming up to 3.3°C compared with the baseline, followed by northeastern North America (2.6°C warming) and northwest North America (2.4°C warming). The smallest warming was observed in predominantly oceanic regions, including southwestern South America, southern South America, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand. Estimates are particularly reliable for tropical regions, including much of Africa, where interannual temperature changes are relatively small and long-term warming signals are easier to identify.

"Nature - Climate Change" published a "News and Views" article by peer experts at the same time, stating that the results of this study may help support regional adaptation planning and climate-related loss and damage assessment, including areas with limited historical observation data. However, the analysis relied on an existing set of climate models, which are relatively small and may not cover the full range of possible climate responses. (over)