The latest international research: Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to temporarily decrease by 0.4% in 2026

China News Service, Beijing, November 10 (Reporter Sun Zifa) Springer Nature's professional academic journal "Nature - Climate Change" published a paper online on November 10, saying that a study showed that after global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions increased at an average annual rate of 0.8% from 2019 to 2025, they are expected to temporarily decline in 2026, with the decline expected to be 0.4%.

The paper's authors attributed the drop to rising oil prices as a result of the U.S.-Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz, concluding that it was likely a temporary drop rather than evidence that emissions had reached a lasting peak.

Schematic diagram related to this research (picture from the paper). Photo courtesy Springer Nature

According to the paper, despite factors such as global energy market turbulence, government policy priorities, high capital costs, trade barriers, and growing demand for AI and data centers, the transition to clean energy continues. Renewable energy and electric vehicles are increasingly curbing global emissions, but their effects are being offset by growing energy demand, especially in emerging economies. Therefore, it is unclear whether these technologies can offset demand growth in 2026 and put global emissions on a sustained downward trajectory.

In this study, Corinne Le Quéré, the first author and corresponding author of the paper and the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, teamed up with collaborators from Norway, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to evaluate how electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy can offset the growth of global emissions from 2019 to 2025, and predict that their impact will continue until 2028.

They found that 59 countries, including South Africa, Thailand, Colombia and Mexico, had lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019, while the economy was still growing; emissions in East and South Asia were still rising, but at a slower pace than in previous years, and global emissions were generally on an upward trend before 2025.

Research shows that in 2025, solar and wind energy are expected to offset 4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, including about 2.1 billion tons in China, 500 million tons each in the United States and the European Union, and 300 million tons in India. The total amount of global carbon offsets is expected to reach 4.6 billion tons in 2026, and carbon dioxide emissions are expected to decrease by 0.4%. In 2025, electric vehicles are expected to offset 190 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 82% of which comes from China, the United States and the European Union combined; the total global carbon offset is expected to rise to 240 million tons in 2026.

Although clean technologies are increasingly curbing emissions growth, the authors believe that the expected 0.4% emissions drop in 2026 is mainly due to high oil prices following the US-Iran conflict. They note that electric vehicles, solar and wind energy are expected to offset about 2 billion tons of additional emissions between 2025 and 2028. However, economic growth and changes in energy use patterns could lead to an increase in emissions of 2.59 billion tons over the same period. According to current trends, electric vehicles, solar and wind energy can offset 1.64 billion tons (or 64%) of the increase; under the accelerated deployment scenario, this offset will increase to 2 billion tons, accounting for about 80% of the increase.

The authors concluded that their findings suggest that clean technologies have offset much of the growth in emissions, but are not enough to support continued declines in global emissions, and therefore need to be deployed faster to reduce emissions. Future trends will also depend on how much of growing energy demand is met by fossil fuels. (over)