2025年区域升温与1.5°C升温世界预期无明显统计差异
加拿大维多利亚大学与中国南京信息工程大学学者合作研究发现,全球多地区已经历约90%–94%的1.5°C升温预期幅度,2025年区域升温与1.5°C世界预期无明显统计差异,凸显各地区亟需采取适应措施。
AI-generated summary
《巴黎协定》旨在将全球平均气温升幅控制在远低于工业化前水平高2°C的水平,并努力将升温限制在1.5°C以内。本研究将历史观测数据与多个气候模型模拟结果相结合,针对46个IPCC区域估算了相对于1850–1900年的外部驱动升温。
中新网北京11月10日电 (记者 孙自法)施普林格·自然旗下专业学术期刊《自然-气候变化》最新发表一篇论文称,一项研究结果表明,世界各地的一些地区可能已经经历了全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高1.5°C时预期升温幅度的约90%–94%,以及升温2°C时预期升温幅度的65%–76%。
这项由加拿大维多利亚大学和中国南京信息工程大学学者合作完成的研究成果表明,2025年的区域升温水平与升温1.5°C的世界预期中的水平已无明显统计差异,凸显了所有地区都亟需采取适应性措施。
本项研究的相关示意图(图片来自论文)。施普林格·自然 供图
该论文介绍,《巴黎协定》旨在将全球平均气温升幅控制在远低于较工业化前水平高2°C的水平,并努力将升温限制在1.5°C以内。然而,这些全球限制转化到不同地区时,对应升温幅度有所差异。在非洲、南美洲部分地区以及极地地区,历史气温观测数据稀少甚至缺失,因此估算这些地区的区域变化尤为困难。
在本项研究中,研究团队将近地表气温的历史观测数据与多个气候模型的模拟结果相结合,针对覆盖各大洲的全部46个政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)区域,估算了相对于1850–1900年的外部驱动升温,并将其与全球升温1.5°C和2°C时这些区域的预期气温进行了比较。他们发现,到2025年,这些区域估计已经历了全球平均升温达到1.5°C时预期升温幅度的90%–94%,以及升温2°C时预期升温幅度的65%–76%。
论文作者认为,这项研究分析表明,区域升温绝大部分可归因于人类影响。温室气体是所有区域升温的主要驱动因素,而气溶胶和其他人类影响的降温效应部分抵消了温室气体的作用。
其中,升温幅度最大的是北半球高纬度地区,其中俄罗斯北极地区较基准升温达3.3°C,其次是北美洲东北部(升温2.6°C)和北美洲西北部(升温2.4°C)。观测到升温幅度最小的是以海洋为主的区域,包括南美洲西南部、南美洲南部、东南亚和新西兰。对热带区域(包括非洲大部分地区)的估算尤为可靠,因为这些区域的年际气温变化相对较小,长期升温信号更易识别。
《自然-气候变化》同期发表同行专家的“新闻与观点”文章指出,这项研究结果或有助支持区域适应性规划以及气候相关损失与损害评估,包括历史观测数据有限的地区。不过,该分析依赖于现有的一组气候模型,其规模相对较小,可能无法涵盖所有可能的气候响应范围。(完)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
各国将加快制定区域气候适应性规划
Likely · Within months
气候模型将进一步扩大规模以涵盖更广泛的气候响应范围
Possible · Within months
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