Beijing breaks its promise! Think tank: One year after the Busan Agreement was signed, China’s rare earth exports to the United States dropped by 75%

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, released a latest report on its official website on the 10th. It pointed out that in the past more than a year since U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce agreement in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, and China promised to increase rare earth exports to the United States, China’s rare earth exports to the United States have even fallen below the level before China implemented comprehensive export controls in April 2025.

The report said that from June 2024 to March 2025, the United States imported an average of 76.8 tons of rare earth compounds and metals from China per month. After the agreement reached at the Busan-Xi meeting, in the 11 months from November 2025 to September 2026, the average monthly import of rare earth compounds and metals from China by the United States dropped to 19.3 tons, a drop of nearly 75%.

Imports of some heavy rare earths fell even more. Taking yttrium as an example, before China implemented export controls in April 2025, the United States imported 333 tons of yttrium in the eight months; but in the eight months after the implementation of export controls, the import volume was only 17 tons, a decrease of approximately 95%.

The shortage of yttrium subsequently became a concern for the U.S. aerospace industry because yttrium is used in specialty coatings to protect jet engines and other high-temperature components, the report said. In February 2026, two North American aerospace coating suppliers temporarily suspended production due to a shortage of yttrium. Another supplier has depleted its inventory and stopped selling products containing yttrium oxide. These disruptions show that supply controls are no longer an expected risk but are causing actual production disruptions.

In addition to the aerospace industry, the U.S. automotive, semiconductor and defense industries are still facing shortages of related rare earth raw materials.

The report pointed out that China’s rare earth export control measures are targeted and do not apply to all countries. China's export data shows that in the 10 months after the signing of the "Busan Agreement", China's total exports of related rare earth raw materials fell by only 2.5%, but exports to the United States and Japan combined fell by 58%. At the same time, China’s exports of rare earth raw materials to other parts of the world increased by nearly 146%.

The report analysis pointed out that this shows that the Beijing authorities are artificially controlling which countries can obtain key rare earth materials.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury recently issued a statement stating that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer had a phone call with Chinese Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng on the 6th, demanding that China immediately and fully implement the commitments reached in Busan last year, especially the supply of rare earths and other key minerals.

According to the "Busan Agreement", China agreed to suspend rare earth export controls for one year, while the United States reduced tariffs on China and suspended some semiconductor export controls. However, China's original export licensing system has not been cancelled. The trade truce deadline originally scheduled to expire in November this year was jointly announced by the United States and China in September this year and will be extended to January 10, 2027.

The report pointed out that the current core issue is whether Washington can force Beijing to fulfill its commitments and transform the "Busan Agreement" into a stable supply of rare earths, or whether China will continue to use trade negotiations to delay and continue to use key mineral supply chains as bargaining chips. With the trade truce set to expire on January 10, 2027, this issue has received increasing attention.