Deng Yuwen, a Chinese political commentator living in the United States, published an article in Foreign Policy magazine on the 8th entitled "Who Will Succeed Xi?" Jinping? ) article pointed out that next year’s 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China may not produce a recognized successor to Xi Jinping. It is more likely that a group of officials born between 1967 and 1975 will be rotated to key positions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places to test their loyalty, crisis management and governance capabilities to form a "candidate pool."
The article writes that China has recently undergone provincial personnel adjustments, including in September, when Zhu Zhongming, born in 1972, was appointed acting mayor of Shanghai, which was once regarded by the outside world as a signal to cultivate Xi Jinping's successor; later, Li Lecheng and Zhou Zuyi, born in 1965, served as secretaries of the Anhui and Henan provincial committees respectively, and Zhao Long, born in 1967, was promoted to secretary of the Fujian provincial committee, and adjustments have not yet stopped.
Deng Yuwen believes that judging from these personnel adjustments, there may not be a recognized successor to Xi Jinping before the 21st National Congress. If Xi Jinping plans to be in power until about 2037, appointing one person now will only form a second power center in advance.
The article pointed out that Xi Jinping faces a succession paradox, that is, those who are too obedient may not be able to handle economic slowdown, social pressure, technological competition, Taiwan Strait risks and the huge party-state machine; those who are too capable and independent may not follow the will of their predecessors after taking power.
Although there is currently no recognized successor, and it is unlikely that such a figure will emerge even before the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the end of next year, the recent intensive reshuffle of provincial officials on the eve of the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China may provide some clues, because it reveals a clear generational shift. More and more provincial party committee secretaries are held by officials born between 1964 and 1969, while provincial governor positions are open to officials born in the 1970s.
The list of candidates for succession is gradually taking shape, but the real question is, what kind of person does Xi Jinping want to succeed him? Xi Jinping’s overall standards for officials are well known: political quality is paramount, they must also be loyal, honest, and courageous to take on responsibilities; they must also have professional abilities, the ability to solve problems, and the ability to respond to major risks.
However, the selection of a general secretary requires consideration of some additional factors that differ from ordinary senior appointments. The first is political reliability, but reliability does not only mean having a good personal relationship with Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping must believe that this person will not abandon Xi Jinping's political legacy once he takes power.
Second is political predictability. Officials who obey Xi Jinping today may behave in completely different ways once they become general secretary. The highest power will change political behavior. Xi Jinping understands this better than most people.
The third is governance capability. In the 2030s, China's leader will no longer just face the challenge of GDP growth. He will have to deal with complex economic and social issues, long-term technological and geopolitical competition with the United States, potential military and security risks involving Taiwan, and a party-state system with more than 100 million members, a huge bureaucracy, intricate regional interests, and a huge state-owned economy.
Deng Yuwen believes that Xi Jinping is more likely not to choose one person at this stage, but to establish a potential "candidate pool." Other things being roughly equal, officials born between 1967 and 1975 seem to be the group that deserves the most attention. If Xi Jinping hands over power around 2037, they will be between 65 and 70 years old.
