Does the Chinese Communist Party like to use military exercises to intervene in my country’s election campaigns? From aircraft ships crossing the Taiwan Strait to silent military exercises, a review of 10 years of records

Chinese military aircraft have frequently harassed Taiwan since 2016. (File photo, provided by the Ministry of National Defense)

[Reporter Tu Jumin/Reporting from Taipei] The Chinese People's Liberation Army has recently assembled more than a hundred navy and coast guard ships in the Western Pacific and other waters. The US think tank "Institute of Warfare" (ISW) has judged that it may be conducting an unannounced large-scale "silent military exercise." Since my country’s nine-in-one election on November 28 is less than a month away, it has attracted attention from the outside world. Looking back at the end of 2016, when the Communist Army began to conduct large-scale military aircraft around Taiwan, if we take the 60 days before all previous central and local elections as a boundary, China has had military developments such as aircraft carriers crossing the Taiwan Strait and dozens of joint aircraft operations in a single day. However, it has also reduced the frequency of military aircraft activities before elections, showing that its military pressure does not increase every election.

When my country held its presidential and legislative elections on January 16, 2016, the Communist Army had not yet dispatched military aircraft around Taiwan on a regular basis. It was not until November 25 of that year that it dispatched bombers and other military aircraft for the first time to circumnavigate the airspace around Taiwan via the Bashi Strait and Miyako Strait. As for the nine-in-one election on November 24, 2018, although China conducted live-fire exercises along the coast of Fujian in April of that year and sent H-6K bombers around Taiwan multiple times, it was more than half a year before the vote; according to public information, there was no joint military exercise of the same scale around Taiwan in the 60 days before the election.

The picture shows a photo taken by the Chinese military of the Chinese Communist Party's "Shandong" aircraft carrier in 2023. (File photo, provided by the Ministry of National Defense)

Before our country’s presidential election on January 11, 2020, we learned about the Communist Party’s clear aircraft movements. China's first self-made aircraft carrier "Shandong" led its escort ships southward through the Taiwan Strait before it was commissioned on November 17, 2019. On December 26 of the same year, only nine days after it was officially commissioned, it once again crossed the Taiwan Strait from south to north, only 16 days before my country's general election. The U.S. Naval Institute News Network (USNI News) and international media paid attention to the pre-election ship deployment at that time.

Public information shows that before my country’s nine-in-one election on November 26, 2022, the Communist Army attracted attention with intensive military aircraft activities. As of 5 p.m. on November 7, the Ministry of National Defense had detected 63 aircraft and 4 ships, of which 31 entered the Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone and another aircraft crossed the center line of the Taiwan Strait. Although the Communist Army conducted a large-scale live-fire military exercise around Taiwan after former US Congress Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan in August of the same year, it was more than 60 days before the vote and was not included in this comparison.

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Before the 2024 presidential election, the Communist Army suddenly fell silent, but there were more balloons in the air

Before our country’s presidential election on January 13, 2024, the situation was different. "Reuters" quoted the Ministry of National Defense on December 26, 2023, that no signs of the Communist army preparing for large-scale military operations were found at that time. Pre-election activities have moderated compared to the previous peak, but Chinese air balloons have appeared intensively since December 2023, and some have even flown over the mainland of Taiwan. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, pointed out that the Chinese military did not detect joint aircraft activities on the day of the voting, but still discovered Chinese balloons, presenting different forms of gray area pressure.

The picture shows a photo of the Chinese Navy monitoring the CCP's "Shandong" aircraft carrier in 2025. (File photo, provided by the Ministry of National Defense)

Less than a month before my country’s local elections on November 28, the Communist Army once again deployed large-scale maritime forces. National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu revealed on the 3rd that more than 100 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels are operating in the Western Pacific and other waters. ISW pointed out that these include four large surface formations from three theaters, the Liaoning aircraft battle group, and there are signs of the Fujian aircraft carrier leaving port. It is estimated that it may be an exercise to isolate Taiwan and prevent foreign troops from rushing to help.

Based on the military activities in the 60 days before previous elections, China does not carry out high-profile military exercises every time there is an election in Taiwan. The form of pressure is constantly changing, from aircraft ships crossing the Taiwan Strait and intensive joint aircraft activities to balloons and unannounced large-scale fleet deployments. In particular, ISW believes that if this year's wave of military deployments deliberately does not announce military exercises, it may be intended to normalize large-scale troop build-ups, blur the line between peacetime war preparations and wartime operations, and shorten the warning time for Taiwan and external allies. However, there is still insufficient evidence to confirm whether the relevant military activities are directly aimed at the election.