He Xinchun leads the poll by 10.7%! Lin Junxian: Ocean currents are overflowing and trends are happening

Democratic Progressive Party legislator Lin Junxian posted on Facebook today that after the two-north polls, polling expert Dai Li'an announced the Taichung mayoral poll today. He Xinchun's support is 10.7 percentage points ahead of Jiang Qichen. Many friends may be surprised, but as early as a month ago, he predicted on Huang Weihan's show that the current will overflow. Next, talk shows will start to focus on constituencies that have been less discussed in the past, such as Taichung. Now the trend is indeed happening.

Lin Junxian analyzed that if this poll only looked at support, people would ask whether He Xinchun is so far ahead? The key lies in the two effects brought about by the overflow of the ocean current: the green camp voters' expression rate increased, while the blue camp voters gradually fell into a spiral of silence. The rising support of He Xinchun reflected that the green camp was more willing to express their opinions. The lag in Jiang Qichen's support indicated that the blue camp voters lacked confidence in the election and were unwilling to take an active stance.

Lin Junxian pointed out that the KMT is not only in Taichung, but also in counties and cities across the country. The same problem is faced, that is, whether the spiral of silence will continue to expand, and even cause blue camp supporters to gradually lose motivation to vote. This is why I saw Chiang Wanan show his eloquent side at the debate, because he needs to boost the morale of the blue camp. This is different from Shen Boyang's choice to communicate in a warm and close to the masses, presenting a completely different campaign strategy.

Returning to the Taichung polls, Lin Junxian believes that although He Xinchun is significantly ahead in terms of support, if various factors are included in the weighting and the actual voting results are further estimated, He and Jiang are still in a tight tie, with each other leading the way. This means that there is definitely room for a reversal and victory in the Taichung election. This is true only in Taichung and in every county and city. The ocean current is overflowing, but victory will not come by itself. We must work together until the last moment. We must have confidence in winning, but we must not take it lightly. The closer we get to the final moment, the more we must be "cautious and fearful" and tighten every screw.

This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted telephone interviews. It was conducted from October 28 to October 30. The survey targets were people registered in Taichung City and over the age of 20. 1,077 people were successfully interviewed (752 people on residential phones and 325 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error is ±3.0%.