Shen Boyang reversed course and beat Jiang Wanan by 17%! Yaita Akio reveals the three fatal mistakes of Chiang Kai-shek's team

The People's Association today (20th) released the latest Taipei mayoral election poll conducted by polling expert Dai Li'an, who was responsible for questionnaire design and analysis. For the first time, there was a golden cross. DPP candidate Shen Boyang led the current mayor Chiang Wanan by 17%, triggering heated discussions from all walks of life. Akio Yaita, CEO of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank, pointed out that such a drastic change in the election situation in just a few months was mainly due to serious problems with the strategy of Chiang Wanan's team; but he also reminded that today's poll results cannot prove that Shen Boyang will definitely win, and supporters cannot relax because of this.

Akio Yaita posted on Facebook this afternoon, "Today's Taipei mayor poll released by the People's Association shows that Shen Boyang is leading Chiang Wanan by a wide margin, which is a political signal worthy of attention. But polls are not votes. There is still some time before the voting day, and the election situation may still be reversed. Shen Boyang's supporters cannot relax. At least judging from the current development of the election, Shen Boyang's tactics have been effective, and Jiang Wanan's strategy has exposed serious problems."

He continued: "Today I will only talk about where Jiang Wanan went wrong. First of all, it was the distortion of the drug harm reduction policy. From the mobile LED advertising truck to the speech in the program interview, Jiang Wanan's camp tried to portray Shen Boyang as a figure who is "tolerant of drugs" and "distributes drugs and needles in the community." However, the harm reduction policies discussed by Shen Boyang are not much different from some of the public health policies currently implemented in Taipei City. Policy differences that could have been discussed rationally are exaggerated into "distributing drugs in the community". When the attack completely deviates from the truth, the credibility of the attacker is damaged."

"The second is to demonize the issue of the death penalty. Chiang Wanan's camp tried to label Shen Boyang as 'supporting the abolition of the death penalty,' but by putting ideas that his opponents have not explicitly stated in his mouth and then criticizing them fiercely, it is difficult to form a persuasive policy debate. What's more, it is not the authority of the mayor of Taipei to maintain or abolish the death penalty. Citizens want to elect a mayor who can solve transportation, housing, education, and public security issues."

"Third, it is to constantly open up old scores. From Shen Boyang's fight with a chair when he was 14 years old to his father's business in China, Chiang Wanan's camp continues to look for attack materials, but repeatedly hyping these past events that have nothing to do with municipal administration is difficult to generate new persuasiveness. Four years ago, Chen Shizhong was attacked by negative labels such as "salty pig hands" and "peeping", and his image was affected. Perhaps because it has worked in the past, the Kuomintang This time I want to repeat the same trick. But the opponent is different. Shen Boyang is an expert in cognitive warfare. He and his team always respond quickly and clarify, and do not let them be led away. Instead, Jiang Wanan’s camp still seems to believe that it can weaken its opponents by constantly creating negative labels. Polls show that many voters have woken up and completely seen through this method.”

In the end, Yaita Akio said bluntly, "Today's poll results cannot prove that Shen Boyang will definitely win, nor can it prove that Jiang Wanan has lost. I hope that the next Taipei mayoral election will have less rumors and smearing, and more policy debate and urban vision."

The poll exposed today was commissioned by the Trustees Association to design and analyze the questionnaire, and the Beacon Market Research Company conducted telephone interviews. From October 14 to October 16, the survey targets were people registered in Taipei City and over the age of 20. 1,075 people were successfully interviewed (753 people from residential phones and 322 people from mobile phones). The maximum sampling error was ±3.0%.