A visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi to Damascus, in which he met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. It constitutes a remarkable political milestone in the course of relations between the two countries, as it is the first visit by an Iraqi prime minister to Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the political change that the country witnessed in late 2024. The visit carries many dimensions and at the same time raises questions about the interest of each country and its need for the other country in a very complex regional scene.
The visit featured symbolic gestures that gave important signals towards the future, starting with Al-Shara’s reception of Al-Zaidi at Damascus Airport, then Al-Zaidi’s visit to the Umayyad Mosque and the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab in Damascus and his donation of five million dollars from his own money to each of the two important religious places.
The Damascus visit comes as part of a broader regional tour by Al-Zaidi to reposition Iraq in its Arab and regional surroundings. He began visiting Riyadh on October 14, his first visit to Saudi Arabia since assuming the presidency of the government, before moving to Amman. The moves come at a time when regional and international interests are intertwined in the Iraqi and Syrian arenas, as the United States, Iran, and Turkey view the relationship between Baghdad and Damascus as part of broader balances in the region.
This simultaneous diplomatic movement raises important questions about the role that Iraqi-Syrian relations can play in the next stage, and the extent of Baghdad’s ability to balance the interests of the competing regional and international powers in the two countries, and transform this rapprochement into a stable partnership that serves its strategic interests.
Why is convergence happening now?
After years of Iranian support for the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the participation of Iraqi factions loyal to Iran in this support, it was difficult for Syria and Iraq’s relations to improve immediately. Therefore, the past months witnessed cautious dealings by the Iraqi side with the new Syrian authority, due to the complexities of the Iraqi internal scene and the sensitivity of the relationship with Damascus after the fall of the Assad regime and the assumption of power in Syria by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, and its allies.
The two countries exchanged visits at the ministerial level as well as at the intelligence level to control and coordinate security efforts, as the two countries share a border extending more than 600 kilometers. Therefore, there are common dangers from ISIS cells, smuggling networks, and organized crime. That is why intelligence and security coordination was a common priority.
But the momentum of relations was strengthened by the consequences of the American-Israeli war with Iran. Iraq found itself without a sea port to export huge amounts of oil, while Syria suffers from accumulated economic pressures after years of destruction.
What does Iraq want?
Iraqi economic interests in Syria are very large, most important of which is the oil file. Iraqi political researcher Abbas Abboud says that economic interests and the exchange of benefits between the two countries can form a bridge to overcome the gap of differences that have accumulated over decades.
If we know that Iraq - before the outbreak of the recent war linked to Iran and the closure or disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - was producing 4 to 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, of which it exports about 3.4 to 3.7 million barrels. Most of the exports went through the southern ports overlooking the Gulf. Iraq cannot remain idle in the face of this bleeding in hard currency that is supposed to come to it through oil exports.
This is why Iraq is discussing with Syria the issue of reviving the project to export Iraqi oil through the Syrian port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean Sea through the historic “Haditha-Baniyas” or “Kirkuk-Baniyas” pipeline.
Baghdad has other interests with Damascus, including enhancing the security of the common border, addressing the files of detainees and members associated with ISIS, the file of water flow across the Euphrates River, and reviving trade exchange and benefiting from Syrian markets.
What does Syria want?
On the other hand, Damascus finds itself in a difficult economic situation and accumulated burdens. Therefore, Iraq represents a very important economic partner, as Iraq is considered one of the largest Arab economies and also possesses a huge internal market. Then, the land connection between Syria and the Gulf states requires passage, in addition to Jordan, through Iraq as well.
The Syrian government is focusing on increasing the volume of trade exchange, attracting Iraqi investments, and taking advantage of the Syrian geographical location to be a transit platform for energy and goods.
The issue of common borders is also a priority for Damascus, and cooperation with Baghdad is necessary in this area.
Expected projects between the two countries
The meeting between Al-Sharaa and Al-Zaidi carried many signals about future joint cooperation between the two sides. A statement issued by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office stated that oil, trade, agriculture, and enhancing security cooperation were at the heart of the talks. The statement also said that "the Iraqi and Syrian peoples are one people in two countries."
The Syrian side also issued a statement, in which it stated that the two sides are in the process of "preparing for a joint economic conference." The statement also spoke about the issue of land roads that pass through Al-Tanf to connect Iraq with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the port of Al-Faw.
Thus, several joint projects emerge that the two sides seek to implement:
1. Oil line to Baniyas
Perhaps it is the most important project in the current discussions. It aims to transport Iraqi oil to the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean, providing Iraq with a new export outlet and giving Syria great economic and strategic returns. Al-Zaidi and Al-Sharaa discussed the possibility of developing the line with a capacity of up to two million barrels per day in the future.
The length of the historical line between Kirkuk and Baniyas is about 890 kilometers, extending from the fields of Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the port of Baniyas. The original line transported about 300,000 barrels per day when it was built in the 1950s. As for the new or rehabilitated line, studies talk about a capacity that may reach one million barrels per day in the first phase, with ambitions raised by some scenarios to two million barrels per day in the future.
If the project includes the construction of entirely new sections and the development of pumping and storage stations and accompanying infrastructure, its cost, according to some estimates, could reach $15 billion.
Baghdad and Damascus signed memorandums of understanding and launched technical, economic and financial studies for the project. International companies are participating in preparing the preliminary studies, and it may take about four years of work until it is ready for operation.
2. Increase trade exchange
Iraqi government spokesman Haider Al-Aboudi said that economic and trade cooperation will be a priority in the discussions, based on the two countries’ need for economic and trade partnerships that transform neighborhood ties into mutual interests and opportunities for development and investment.
3. Agricultural and food integration
Agricultural cooperation was at the heart of the talks with the aim of achieving a greater degree of food integration between the two countries, in light of each of them’s need to enhance food security and reduce dependence on foreign imports. The two countries can also coordinate more in the field of water, which will achieve their interests and prevent any sudden floods that lead to major losses.
4. Security and intelligence coordination
Perhaps this file is one of the most difficult files given the previous sensitivity between Iraqi factions loyal to Iran and Syrian factions that were in the opposition fighting against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Therefore, coordination between the two parties requires communication between “yesterday’s enemies.”
The Syrian statement issued after the visit stated that the two sides discussed arrangements for the visit of an Iraqi security delegation to Syria, "which includes the Minister of Defense and representatives of the security authorities concerned with border security and the Popular Mobilization Forces."
Therefore, it is expected that the next phase will witness coordination in efforts to combat terrorism, monitor borders, and pursue cross-border smuggling networks.
Does pragmatism trump ideology?
Al-Zaidi's visit to Damascus, and the warm reception he received, which was remarkable after Al-Sharaa himself came to Damascus airport to receive him, constitute a strong boost in the path of more than necessary relations at a very sensitive regional moment. But experts believe that it is too early to talk about a political alliance in the traditional sense.
Dr. Abbas Abboud points out in his speech that the future of relations between Baghdad and Damascus is largely affected by political developments in the United States. American envoy Tom Barrack, who is following up on the Syrian and Iraqi files, does not seek to build a unified Iraqi-Syrian axis as much as he focuses on strengthening the centrality of the state in the two countries and reducing Iran’s influence inside Iraq. Abboud believes that the direction of this policy will depend on the results of the US midterm elections and the extent of the Republicans’ ability to maintain their influence during the remainder of President Trump’s term.
The Syrian and Iraqi sides are also linked by partnerships with other parties that seem contradictory. But it seems that the leadership of the two countries chose to build a pragmatic partnership based on interests, not ideology.
