The second meeting between Sichuan and Xi ended recently in Washington. However, during the talks, it was reported several times that Chinese President Xi Jinping intended to use the "August 17 Communique" signed in 1982 to pressure the United States to stop arms sales to Taiwan. In this regard, Qiu Zhaolin, former deputy representative to the United States and adjunct researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, said today (3rd) that Xi Jinping should not block U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Once the cross-strait military power is imbalanced, it may induce China to invade Taiwan in "non-peaceful ways". This will not only destroy China's economic and military development achievements in the past 30 years, but also be detrimental to China's goal of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in 2049.
The Taiwan New Century Cultural and Educational Foundation held a series of talks this morning on "The 250 Years of the Founding of the United States: International Order, Constitutional Democracy, and Taiwan's Future." The first session was themed "U.S. Global Strategy, U.S.-China Competition, and Taiwan's Future Choices." Qiu Zhaolin, adjunct researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, served as the speaker. Lai Yi-chung, advisory committee member of Taiwan think tank, Guo Yuren, director of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, Su Yantu, researcher at the Institute of Law, Academia Sinica, and others.
Qiu Zhaolin pointed out that the list of facts released by the White House after the second meeting between Trump and Xi mentioned that "Trump proposed to Xi Jinping that the United States, China and Russia initiate trilateral arms control negotiations." However, the eight consensus points listed by China after the meeting did not mention this. In fact, the U.S.-China arms control negotiations in 2023 still achieved results. It was not until former U.S. President Biden made high-frequency arms sales to Taiwan in 2024 that China terminated the negotiations. She believes that it is worth paying attention to whether the trilateral arms control negotiations between the United States, China, and Russia are launched. China may use this as a bargaining chip, and it may also involve future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and affect Taiwan-U.S. relations.
Qiu Zhaolin also mentioned that currently all parties have told the CCP that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is very important, and they hope that China can adopt their opinions. According to past reports by the Financial Times, in April 2023, when Xi Jinping met with European Commission President Von der Leyen, he said, "The U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are trying to encourage him to attack Taiwan, but he will not take the bait. Otherwise, a conflict with the United States may destroy many of China's achievements so far and undermine China's goal of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in 2049." However, she believes it remains to be seen whether China will say one thing and do another.
During Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, it was reported that he originally planned to visit the U.S. National Archives or quote the "August 17 Communique" to pressure the United States to stop arms sales to Taiwan. Qiu Zhaolin said that Xi Jinping should actually take a good look at the communique. The "August 17 Communique" states that "China must resolve cross-strait differences through peaceful means" and that "the performance and quantity of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan depend on the degree of threat China poses to Taiwan." China's request to stop arms sales to Taiwan is not only inconsistent with the premise of the "August 17 Communique", but the continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are actually very important to China.
Qiu Zhaolin explained that if the disparity in military power between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait becomes greater and greater, China may use non-peaceful means to try to quickly take over Taiwan. However, if Taiwan sets up a dragnet, China will not be able to do so. After the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, China has developed various economic and military capabilities in a peaceful and stable environment over the past 30 years. If Xi Jinping truly wants to bring about the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, she believes that "it must be in a peaceful environment."
