Lebanon hopes to convince the United States of America to confirm its hosting of the Lebanese-Israeli military meeting in Florida before the date of the Knesset elections in Israel on October 27, and later the midterm elections in America on November 3, because Lebanon has no interest in transferring the negotiations until after the completion of these two electoral deadlines, after it was reported that the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, is not willing to respond by providing facilities to extract the “framework agreement” signed with Lebanon. It is likely to stagnate, unless it is certain that Hezbollah is disarmed so that it can employ it in the elections to ensure its return to the presidency of the government.
Asharq Al-Awsat learned from a political source directly concerned with the negotiations that the American ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, has not brought with him, so far, anything new regarding confirming the date of the military meeting during his tours of Lebanese officials, although he was advising in his private councils to postpone the meeting until after the elections in Israel and the midterm elections in the United States, lest it be limited to taking a memorial photo of the three delegations without having any effects that can be built upon to cause a reliable breach.
The source confirmed that Ambassador Issa is careful, in his meetings, which he holds away from the limelight, not to force the American administration to adopt his point of view, which is a “personal opinion” in light of his reading of the current political circumstances that dictate that Netanyahu wait and not provide facilities to move the “framework agreement” into implementation in anticipation of the date of the Knesset elections.
A consolation prize for Lebanon
He pointed out that its holding will not change the reality of the political situation, and will remain under the umbrella of offering a “consolation prize” to Lebanon that will not be disbursed in light of his military delegation to Florida’s insistence on establishing a ceasefire, including a cessation of hostilities and their bulldozing of towns located within the “yellow line,” and their systematic destruction of the remaining homes in them, and on the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, and the expansion of the “experimental zone” by annexing cities and towns that are still occupied, in addition to the formation of a “verification mechanism.” To ensure the deployment of the army there, and that it is free of Hezbollah’s weapons and fighters, leading to the Lebanese army’s placement in the towns north of the Litani River, specifically those overlooking its south, after the Israeli army took control of the “Ali al-Taher” hills, and the party’s commitment to a ceasefire and not responding to Israeli attacks and violations.
The source said that Ambassador Issa is in contact with the US State Department, which is sponsoring the implementation of the “Framework Agreement,” the basis of which is the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state. He was quoted as confirming that he had not yet been informed of any notification regarding fixing the date for the military meeting to be held between the 20th and 22nd of this month, expressing at the same time his understanding of the reasons behind Lebanon’s insistence on holding the meeting before the electoral deadline in Israel, and later in the United States, came upon it.
He added that Lebanon is still betting on American intervention to pressure Israel to open a window in the dead-end wall surrounding the “Framework Agreement,” in preparation for putting it on the path to implementation, especially since US President Donald Trump had pledged to the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, when he met him in Washington, to provide support to Lebanon to implement the agreement and not to link its fate to Iran.
He believed that fixing the date for holding the military meeting is now subject to the outcome of the “tug of war” game between Lebanon and Israel, with the hope that the United States will intervene at the appropriate time to convince the latter to withdraw its reservations about holding it, and not to postpone it until after the Knesset elections and the internalization of its results inside Israel.
Fear of emptiness
According to the source, Lebanon fears being thrust into a deadly vacuum if it is decided to extend it until after the elections are held in Israel, and fears that it will be a prisoner of its management of the crisis, which may be long if Netanyahu and his rival are unable to secure the majority in the Knesset that would allow either of them to form a government.
The source confirmed that Lebanon is in dire need of American guarantees to fix the date of the military meeting and make it successful, because it is not possible for Netanyahu to continue pressing fire to expand the security zone located within the yellow line by annexing new villages to it. He asked: What will the situation be like in the country if it is not possible to agree on the alternative force that is supposed to replace the International Emergency Forces (UNIFIL) once they leave the south at the end of this year? He said that Lebanon insists on replacing it with a multinational force that has the cover of the UN Security Council.
He added that the government has legitimate concerns about Israel's refusal to replace it with a UN force, allowing it to impose a mechanism to fill the vacuum in the south based on direct coordination between the two countries under American auspices in the absence of any international reference.
He stressed that the government expresses its satisfaction with the European Union countries’ understanding of Lebanon’s fears of creating a vacuum in the south, even though they agree on the exclusive control of weapons in the hands of the state, and finds no justification for Hezbollah to cling to its weapons, because it no longer has any role other than linking Lebanon to Iran, and this is what the European Union countries reject by supporting the “Framework Agreement,” even though Washington rules out any role in implementing it.
The source revealed that European and Arab countries had advised Hezbollah on the necessity of its involvement in the state project on the basis of its support for the “Framework Agreement,” but they did not receive the desired response from it with its insistence on linking Lebanon to the Iranian-American “Memorandum of Understanding.”
