Putin's 2 tricks to defeat Ukraine were frustrated WSJ: Hope for these last two arrows

The war between Ukraine and Russia has lasted for more than four years. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 12th that Russian President Vladimir Putin originally bet on four options to win the war, but defeating the Ukrainian army or forcing the U.S. Trump administration to force Kyiv to make concessions have not been effective. Now he hopes to continue to use missiles and drone attacks to paralyze the Uzbek economy and wait for Europe's support for Ukraine to loosen.

The report pointed out that the Russian army's performance on the battlefield in Ukraine this year has been its worst since the war began, and the offensive launched before winter has not yet been able to break through the defense lines. Analysis estimates that the number of Russian soldiers killed in more than four years of the war may have reached 600,000.

As the war escalates, the Russian military has stepped up air strikes on Ukrainian cities and key infrastructure. Opinion polls show that the air strikes have not made Ukrainian people more willing to surrender, but if the attacks trigger a humanitarian crisis and bring the economy to a standstill, Kyiv may rely more on European funds to finance the war.

As for the "Trump card", despite pressure from the United States, Kyiv still refused to make concessions and cede territory. Shortly after Trump returned to the White House, he suspended almost all military and financial aid to Ukraine, which also weakened the White House's leverage. At the same time, Moscow has been persuading the White House to lift sanctions against Russia before the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, using lucrative business opportunities as inducements. However, most of these initiatives have made no real progress. The Democratic Party's dominance of Congress after the midterm elections may make it more difficult for the Trump administration to further relax sanctions.

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a consultancy focusing on Russian politics, said: "Putin is well aware of Trump's current limitations, so he will continue to fight until the situation in Ukraine changes, or he sees some kind of change in Europe."

The report pointed out that the Kremlin now realizes that Europe is a key supporter of Ukraine and may also become its weakness. A large part of Putin's hope of victory lies in the fact that Europe's political support for Ukraine will first loosen before the burden of the war becomes too heavy for his regime to bear: European governments have still supported Ukraine so far, but sluggish economic growth, tight social welfare expenditures and high energy prices are dragging down the support of the rulers, while the support of left- and right-wing populist forces in Europe, which are usually more sympathetic to Russia, has increased.

This week's U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi showed that Russia has not given up on its goal of dividing and controlling Ukraine and rewriting Europe's post-Cold War order. Hanna Notte, director of Eurasian affairs at the James Martin Center for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, pointed out that Moscow will observe the effectiveness of its missile offensive next spring and the results of the French presidential election before reassessing the situation; but even if it adjusts its strategy, it is unlikely to abandon its original goals.