(International Observation) Can the "Ukraine Dilemma" usher in a break?

China News Service, Moscow, November 13. Question: Can the "Ukraine Dilemma" usher in a break?

China News Service reporter Tian Bing

On the 12th, U.S. Presidential Special Envoy Witkov and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner made a “one-day shuttle” from Abu Dhabi, the venue for the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine trilateral talks, to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. That night, they flew to Dublin, the capital of Ireland, to brief Ukrainian President Zelensky on the talks. In contrast, as winter approaches, the road to a "complete end" to the conflict in Ukraine is still long.

What signal does "Europe on the table" send?

During the Kremlin talks, Russia and the United States once again confirmed that the exchange of prisoners of war and other humanitarian fields had achieved positive results. It is expected to become the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine so far. Putin proposed to launch new humanitarian operations in Konstantinovka based on the "Oreshki Model". The United States expressed support for this.

Witkov conveyed Trump's words to Putin that it was "vital" to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible, hoping to promote a new round of multi-party talks involving European representatives. Kushner said that Europe has shown some "positive trends" and the United States "hopes to join hands with Russia, Ukraine and all European parties to jointly promote an end to this conflict."

Putin responded that it was Europe that took the initiative to interrupt dialogue with Russia. Since Europe is eager to join the negotiations, Russia hopes that the United States can communicate with Europe so that they can finally clarify "whether to achieve peace in Ukraine or continue the war." This shows that Russia does not completely reject Europe’s “come to the table”.

After talks with Witkov and Kushner, Zelensky said that Europe will send representatives to directly participate in the next round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia and will "have a say."

Russia, the United States and Ukraine resumed face-to-face consultations after about nine months. The United States exchanged views with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine again, showing signs of progress in the peace talks. But the door to a new round of negotiations is about to open, which does not mean that all parties can reach a compromise. It is still those core differences that truly determine the prospects for peace.

How to solve the territorial and security dilemma?

Putin said that the "grey zone" issue raised by Ukraine was the cause of the dispute. "There can only be one dividing line between Russia and Ukraine, and that is the national border." He emphasized that it is absolutely unacceptable for any foreign troops to be stationed in Ukraine. This will threaten Russia's security, and foreign troops in Ukraine will be Russia's legal target.

Zelensky said that sensitive issues involving territory need to be discussed at the leadership level, and emphasized that Ukraine needs security guarantees provided by the United States, "not from Russia."

This reflects the fundamental differences between the two sides on post-war security. Russia hopes to eliminate its own security threats by restricting foreign military presence, while Ukraine hopes to prevent the recurrence of conflicts through external security commitments.

Can Europe's new security architecture create a breakthrough?

Russian presidential assistant Ushakov said that Putin reiterated his support for the United States' idea of ​​solving Russia-Ukraine security issues by building a future European security system. He reiterated the basic elements of the security architecture proposed by Russia in 2021: NATO will no longer expand eastward, will not deploy offensive weapons on Russia's borders, and NATO troop deployment will return to the status quo in 1997. He emphasized that in view of the West's current policy towards Russia, Russia will also add some "new considerations."

Kushner said that the United States has begun to discuss the future European security architecture with Europe, and its goal is not only to end current conflicts, but also to prevent new conflicts from occurring.

Europe's direct participation in negotiations will help it incorporate its security demands into negotiations and strive for broader interests; however, the long-term lack of trust accumulated between Russia and Europe, as well as differences on NATO's role, military deployment and security guarantees, may cause negotiations to face new difficulties. Even if all parties agree on the need to establish a new security architecture, there are still many uncertainties in how to translate it into a specific plan that is executable and acceptable to all parties.

Although all parties spoke positively of the Abu Dhabi talks, their positions on structural issues are still far apart. From breaking the deadlock to achieving peace, it remains to be seen whether the Ukraine dilemma can truly turn a corner.