Illinois vs. No. 4 UCLA college football picks, odds: Rainy weather could help Illini grab upset

If I was the athletic director of a power conference college football school, why wouldn't I just go look at James Madison for my next head coach when I need of one? Curt Cignetti, at JMU from 2022-23, has worked a miracle at basketball school Indiana, culminating in last season's national championship. The man who replaced Cignetti with the Dukes, Bob Chesney, is in the midst of a similar awakening at basketball school UCLA in his first season there.

The unbeaten No. 4 Bruins (9-0) control their destiny to reach the Big Ten Championship Game -- they are the only team in the league without a loss -- and the College Football Playoff for the first time, although that would no longer be the case should they be upset Friday at home against a capable Illinois team (6-3). It's their first meeting as conference foes. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX from the Rose Bowl.

I can't remember a rain game in Pasadena, but there's a 100% chance of rain tonight. That evens the playing field a bit. As 10-point favorites at DraftKings, UCLA is taking 92% of the money and 77% of the bets. There's split action on the total of 47.5, but I'm guessing once Joe Public sees the weather it will drop.

Illinois vs. UCLA same-game parlay: Bruins money line, Both teams score 10+ points.

Did you know you can bet on the winner of the Bear Bryant Award as National Coach of the Year? Cignetti is the reigning winner, and Chesney is the -190 favorite for 2026 with Utah's Morgan Scalley next at +350. Chesney is on a personal 20-game regular-season winning streak, the longest by an FBS head coach.

After collapsing to 3-9 last year under coaches Deshaun Foster and Tim Skipper, little was expected from the 2026 Bruins. They were given a season Over/Under win total of just 6.5, around +15000 to win the Big Ten, +3000 to reach the playoff and +75000 to win the national championship.

While I expect UCLA to win here, it may lose a very tricky trip to Ann Arbor next Saturday or the home finale vs. No. 18 USC on Nov. 28. So I'd lean No. The Bruins should join 2024 Indiana as the only teams in the FBS era to start 10-0 after winning three or fewer games in previous season. It would be the third 10-0 start in school history (1998, 1946).

As long as the Bruins take care of business here, UCLA could afford a loss in one of those two and still reach the Big Ten title game and likely the Playoff depending on what might happen there. The Bruins are +200 second-favorites behind Indiana (+130) for the Big Ten title and the automatic playoff bid.

On Friday, the Bruins seek their first home win as an AP Top 5 team since October 2001. They have won all five games at home this season – more home wins than the previous two seasons combined – by double digits. The program hasn't won six straight that way since 2005-06.

This is not a flashy team as it leads the FBS with 27 takeaways and 100 points off turnovers while leading the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (213.2) and rushing touchdowns (26). Chesney doesn't ask former backup QB Ty Dieffenbach to do too much and relies on the stellar 1-2 tailback punch of Wayne Knight (128/789/13) and Anthony Woods (86/524/6). Knight is the first UCLA player in the past 30 years to score a scrimmage TD in each of the first nine games of a season.

Illinois is very well-coached as well by Bret Bielema and has won four in a row since a 2-3 start. The Illini seek their highest-ranked AP win since 2007 at No. 1 Ohio State, having lost nine straight vs. Top 10 teams, eight by double digits. They haven't won in the Pacific Time Zone since 2001 at Cal (lost six in a row).

Starting QB Katin Houser returned from a multi-game injury absence and hand surgery last Saturday in a 24-13 comeback win over Nebraska and had three TD throws. He now has at least one TD pass in 16 straight games, among the longest streaks in the FBS.

You can't turn the ball over against this UCLA team and Illinois has allowed only seven points off turnovers, tied for fifth-fewest in the nation. But the Illini also have the fewest takeaways with six and have struggled to stop the run, allowing 131.2 YPG. They are 8-2 ATS on the road vs. ranked teams under Bielema.