Analysts predict a fuel oil shortage in the third quarter of 2026

In the third quarter of 2026, the world will face a fuel oil shortage due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This development of events was predicted by analysts interviewed by Reuters.

Fuel shortages for ships and power plants are expected due to difficulties faced by producers. The strikes on oil refineries in Russia and the Gulf countries have disrupted production and disrupted shipping.

The supply cuts threaten to further increase costs for shipowners and power producers already facing disruptions. Asia will be hit hardest as it is most dependent on supplies from the Persian Gulf, which have been disrupted. Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, imports more than half of the nearly million barrels a day it needs to meet demand, according to import data from Kpler.

According to forecasts by the consulting company Energy Aspects, in the third quarter the deficit will be 218 thousand barrels per day.

“Due to prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East, we expect the fuel oil supply situation to remain extremely tight in the third quarter,” said Rystad analyst Valerie Panopio.

Ukrainian drone attacks have impacted Russian refinery output, with fuel oil exports hitting a record low of 591,000 bpd in August, compared with an average of more than 860,000 bpd in 2025. Fuel oil exports from the Middle East fell 45 percent year-on-year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day in March-August.