Meteorological experts from National Taiwan University warn: The El Niño phenomenon in 2026 will reach the strongest level in history

Lin De'en, a doctor of atmospheric sciences at National Taiwan University, pointed out that as of early September 2026, the El Niño phenomenon is rapidly intensifying. What is really worthy of attention is that it may reach its peak from late autumn to winter this year. It is predicted that it will enter a very strong stage from October to December, and Niño 3.4/RONI may reach a historically extremely strong level above +2.5°C.

Lin Deen posted on the Facebook fan page "Teacher Lin Weather Station" that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently assesses that the probability of reaching the most powerful event in history this season is about 69%, and the probability of "very strong El Niño" is more than 90%. There are four key environmental characteristics worthy of attention at this stage.

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First of all, this year's El Niño is coming, and it is not just the eastern Pacific that is rapidly warming, but the entire central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The most obvious signal at present is that the sea temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, that is, the difference compared with the climate average for the same period, has exceeded +2°C.

Secondly, Lin Deen pointed out that the biggest key is not the surface sea temperature, but "the subsurface warm water of the ocean is being transported eastward." This is the core key to whether El Niño can continue to strengthen in 2026.

According to NOAA data, the subsurface warm water anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was obvious in July 2026, and the subsurface sea temperature anomaly in some areas even reached about +10°C; at the same time, the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific also showed signs of significant deepening.

Third, the trade winds weakened in the second half of this year, and low-level westerly anomalies even occurred. Lin Deen said that under normal circumstances, easterly trade winds push warm water to the western Pacific, creating a situation where it is warm in the west and cold in the east. When the El Nino develops and the east wind begins to weaken, the warm water in the western Pacific will flow back eastward, making the central and eastern Pacific increasingly warm.

Fourth, "ocean signals" and "atmospheric signals" are evolving simultaneously. Lin Deen pointed out that if only sea temperatures increase, it may be just a temporary warm water event, but currently ocean and atmospheric signals are occurring at the same time.

Including Niño 3.4 warming, seawater temperatures in the eastern Pacific above +2°C, enhanced subsurface warm water, changes in the thermocline, westerly anomalies, enhanced convection in the eastern Pacific, and weakened convection in Indonesia, all show that important features of the "Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled El Niño" have been formed in 2026.

Lin Deen said that Holy Infant is rapidly strengthening this year, and it is predicted that it will reach its peak from late autumn to winter this year, and it may enter a very strong stage from October to December. The subsequent development is worthy of attention.