2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions, odds, time: NASCAR at Miami picks from proven model

The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race has arrived, with the season finale event on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET from Homestead-Miami Speedway. William Byron won last week at Martinsville, while Kyle Larson has three playoff victories entering NASCAR at Miami 2026. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe has a pair of playoff triumphs, with Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano each having one win. Larson has a 67-point edge over Bell in championship standings, with Denny Hamlin 70 points behind Larson.

The latest 2026 NASCAR Championship Race odds have Larson as the +410 favorite, with Hamlin (+600), Bell (+650) Ryan Blaney (+700) and Reddick (+750) rounding out the top five. Byron, who had a runner-up at Talladega before his victory last week, is at +1100 as one of seven drivers priced shorter than +1200 to make NASCAR Miami bets on. Before locking in any NASCAR Championship Race predictions or NASCAR DFS lineups, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times and reveals NASCAR betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable. The model has nailed a whopping 34 winners since 2021 and 16 since 2025, including three NASCAR Chase winners with Kyle Larson at Illinois, Joey Logano at Bristol and then Larson again at Kansas. Anyone following his NASCAR picks on their favorite betting sites could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

2026 NASCAR at Miami predictions

For the NASCAR Championship Race 2026, McClure is fading Kyle Larson (+410) at the best betting apps. Despite him being the favorite, 10,000 model simulations say he barely cracks the top 5. While Larson did win at Homestead in March 2025, he finished outside the top 10 in his prior two starts at the track. Also, Larson was simply not in contention at several other comparable circuits to Homestead of roughly the same length this season. At Nashville, Chicagoland and Texas Motor Speedway, he couldn't even crack the top 20 as the current leader in the NASCAR Chase standings is one to fade on Sunday.

Another surprise: The model is high on Ty Gibbs at +1700. He's coming off a third place last week and is a part of the most successful team in Homestead history, as Joe Gibbs Racing has a record nine wins at this track. That's more victories than every other active NASCAR team combined (eight), and JGR has placed multiple drivers in the top 5 in each of the last two NASCAR Miami races. Gibbs collected his first two Cup Series victories this season, and his 13 top-5 finishes equal the amount he had over the prior two years combined. See which other drivers the model is backing at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NASCAR Championship Race picks

McClure is also high on another pair of longshots of at least +2000 who make runs for the top of the leaderboard, potentially netting any backer a huge payday. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race, and which longshots could stun NASCAR at Miami? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2026 NASCAR Championship Race picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that's already nailed three playoff winners, and find out.

2026 NASCAR at Miami odds, lineup

See full NASCAR Championship Race picks at SportsLine.

(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change)