NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 9, 2026: Fade the New England Patriots

The NFL survivor pool saw a few more upsets this week with losses by Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City and the New York Jets. The Cowboys entered as 7.5-point favorites over the Cardinals. Despite many players finding themselves out of the running in their respective pools, Survivor Revival pools do give players a second chance. There are two teams on their bye, so Week 9 will have only 15 games.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks had the biggest spread on the board at -12.5 earlier in the week, but is now down to -8.5 with Sam Darnold (quad) ruled out and with Gardner Minshew replacing Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Many have used the Seahawks already anyhow, so this might be a week where you'll have to back another favorite to advance, like the Texans (-6) versus a Chargers team on a 10-game losing streak, or the 49ers (-9.5), who are coming off a bye, over the Raiders.

Before making any Week 9 NFL survivor pool picks or Survivor revival predictions, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 9 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 9 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 9 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point and -164 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Patriots are coming off one-score performances, including a 24-19 win over the 1-6 Miami Dolphins in Week 8. New England trailed 13-3 at the half before rallying to win.

Green Bay is 2-2 on the road this season, and is led by veteran quarterback Jordan Love. Despite the Packers leading the league in dropped passes, Love has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. Among his top targets are wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Watson has 42 receptions for 708 yards and six touchdowns, while Golden has 43 catches for 619 yards and four scores.

New England, meanwhile, is led by quarterback Drake Maye. In eight starts, he is completing 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has been picked off eight times. The Pats will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model has New England winning by just a point, so there are several other favorites who are better plays despite the overall success the Patriots have had this season. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 9 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in nearly 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.