2026 WNBA Playoffs: Power Rankings and First-Round Matchups

The 2026 WNBA playoffs will get underway on Sunday with a quadruple header that will feature Game 1 of all four first-round series. As a quick refresher, here's a look at the seeds and the first-round matchups, which weren't set until the final seconds of Thursday's regular season finale:

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 8 New York Liberty

No. 2 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 7 Dallas Wings

No. 3 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever

No. 4 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 5 Washington Mystics

Just seven games separate the Lynx and Liberty, the smallest gap between the Nos. 1 and 8 seeds since the league changed the playoff format in 2016 to include the top eight teams regardless of conference affiliation. As a result, this is the most wide-open postseason in a decade.

Be that as it may, some teams are more likely to win it all than others. Ahead of Sunday, here's a look at which teams have the best chance to win the title with our pre-playoffs power rankings.

1. Minnesota Lynx

Seed: 1

Offensive rating: 112.1 (3rd)

Defensive rating: 103.5 (4th)

Net rating: +8.6 (2nd)

First-round matchup: Wings

The Lynx stumbled a bit down the stretch, which made the race for the No. 1 seed more dramatic than it should have been, but their demolition of the Fever on Thursday in their finale was a reminder that they've been the best team in the league for the majority of the season. After falling short due to controversial officiating in 2024 and injuries in 2025, this veteran group will be highly motivated to finally win it all this season. Olivia Miles' elite playmaking and ability to get downhill into the paint will give them an edge they didn't have in each of the last two postseasons, and they also have the best coach in the league and homecourt advantage throughout.

2. Las Vegas Aces

Seed: 3

Offensive rating: 112.9 (2nd)

Defensive rating: 105.0 (5th)

Net rating: +7 (4th)

First-round matchup: Fever

The reigning champs are back again, looking for their second repeat and fourth title in the last five seasons. Only two other teams, the Houston Comets (1997-2000) and Los Angeles Sparks (2001-02), have ever repeated, so history is against the Aces, but they have the best player in the world in A'ja Wilson and a reliable veteran core that knows how to win. It's reasonable to have some concerns about the supporting cast, especially after Chennedy Carter's mid-season dismissal and NaLyssa Smith's season-ending knee injury, but Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray -- who have accounted for 59.8% of the Aces' points this season -- found a way to win it all last year without much help. It's certainly possible they can do it again.

3. Golden State Valkyries

Seed: 2

Offensive rating: 108.2 (7th)

Defensive rating: 99.1 (1st)

Net rating: +9.1 (1st)

First-round matchup: Wings

The Valkyries are fascinating. Their 99.1 defensive rating is 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than anyone else this season, and they just might be the best defensive team ever. They've also set the WNBA single-season record for 3-point attempts per game (30.3) for the second consecutive season and don't have a single player averaging 15 points. When their 3s are falling, they're borderline unbeatable. But when they aren't, you wonder if they'll ever score again. In 25 games when they shot at least 35% from 3, they went 21-4. In 19 games when they shot under 35% from 3, they went 11-8. The Valkyries' defense is truly unbelievable, but when the going gets tough later in the playoffs, who do you trust on this team to go get a bucket?

4. Atlanta Dream

Seed: 4

Offensive rating: 111.9 (4th)

Defensive rating: 103.5 (3rd)

Net rating: +8.5 (3rd)

First-round matchup: Mystics

After a big offseason swing to acquire Angel Reese, the Dream won an identical number of regular-season games as they did in 2025, but hope to have more playoff viability than last season, when they were stunned in the first round by the Fever. Reese, who may win Defensive Player of the Year, has made the Dream even better on defense and on the offensive glass, and her relentless motor on both ends is a major part of their success. Still, questions remain about their scoring and shotmaking when things get tough in the playoffs. As a team, they shot 33.4% on jump shots this season, which ranked 13th in the league and was the worst among playoff teams.

5. Washington Mystics

Seed: 5

Offensive rating: 104.6 (12th)

Defensive rating: 103.3 (2nd)

Net rating: +1.3 (8th)

First-round matchup: Dream

The Mystics have eight rookies on the roster, and even after adding Betnijah Laney-Hamilton in August, just three players have more than one year of experience. But Coach of the Year candidate Sydney Johnson has the youngest team in the league gelling at the right time. Washington is 14-4 since the All-Star break, tied for the league's best record in that span -- ironically, with Atlanta, its first-round opponent. Offense has always been the question for the Mystics, who are extremely big, physical and athletic. Among playoff teams, they are last in 3-point attempts per game (19.6) and 3-point percentage (32.3%), though they have shot the ball much better since the All-Star break.

6. Indiana Fever

Seed: 6

Offensive rating: 115 (1st)

Defensive rating: 108.3 (8th)

Net rating: +6.8 (5th)

First-round matchup: Aces

The Fever have the best offense in WNBA history by a wide margin thanks to remarkable seasons from Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. They also have the worst defense of any playoff team and no reliable frontcourt depth behind Aliyah Boston, who hasn't been 100% healthy all season. Backup point guard Ty Harris also went down with a gruesome-looking leg injury in their finale, which likely means rookie Raven Johnson will have to step into a bigger role in the playoffs. Could Clark and Mitchell catch a heater and propel them into the Finals? Absolutely. But this team has been too inconsistent all season.

7. New York Liberty

Seed: 7

Offensive rating: 110.8 (6th)

Defensive rating: 106.9 (7th)

Net rating: +3.9 (7th)

First-round matchup: Lynx

The Liberty were the preseason title favorites, but despite all of their talent, nothing ever came together for them this season. Injuries were once again the major culprit. Marquee free agent signing Satou Sabally only played 13 games before being ruled out for the season with concussion issues, while Sabrina Ionescu and Leonie Fiebich also missed extensive time. It hasn't helped that Ionescu has looked nothing like her usual self after returning from ankle and back injuries. She averaged 14.6 points and 4.7 rebounds on just 38.8% shooting, including 29.5% from 3-point range. If Ionescu suddenly snaps back into form, a 2021 Chicago Sky-style run is not out of the question, but there's no reason to trust this team at this point.

8. Dallas Wings

Seed: 8

Offensive rating: 111.3 (5th)

Defensive rating: 106.4 (6th)

Net rating: +4.8 (6th)

First-round matchup: Valkyries

This was a frustrating season for the Wings at times, but overall it has to be considered a major success. They won 17 more games than last season -- the biggest jump in the league -- and made the playoffs for the first time since 2023 under new coach Jose Fernandez. However, they feasted on lottery teams, going 20-3 against them, compared to just 7-14 against playoff teams. That includes an 0-3 mark against the Valkyries, their first-round opponent. As a result, it's hard to see the Wings as a viable playoff threat.