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Back摩根士丹利看好黃金中長期走勢 預期2027年下半年重返每盎司5000美元
摩根士丹利看好黃金中長期走勢 預期2027年下半年重返每盎司5000美元
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自由时报1 hour agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

摩根士丹利看好黃金中長期走勢 預期2027年下半年重返每盎司5000美元

黃金摩根士丹利高爾

Quick Look

摩根士丹利金屬與礦業策略主管高爾指出，儘管美元走強、長天期美債殖利率升至20年高點等壓力存在，但黃金在每盎司4000美元附近具有強勁支撐，預期金價將在2027年下半年重新站上每盎司5000美元，央行與實體需求、ETF持倉韌性及財政永續性疑慮是關鍵支撐因素。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

黃金近期面臨美元走強、長天期美債殖利率升至20年高點及油價上漲等壓力，但摩根士丹利仍看好其中長期走勢，預期2027年下半年金價重返每盎司5000美元。

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黃金近期面臨美元走強、長天期美債殖利率升至20年高點等壓力，但摩根士丹利仍看好黃金中長期走勢。（美聯社）

〔財經頻道／綜合報導〕黃金近期面臨美元走強、長天期美債殖利率升至20年高點等壓力，但摩根士丹利仍看好黃金中長期走勢。摩根士丹利金屬與礦業策略主管高爾（Amy Gower）預期金價將在2027年下半年重新站上每盎司5000美元，並認為每盎司4000美元附近具有相當強的支撐。

高爾近日接受《CNBC》訪問時指出，目前黃金市場確實面臨挑戰，包括長天期債券殖利率升至20年高點、美元走強，以及油價上漲。不過，她表示，黃金在每盎司4000美元以上似乎已找到一定支撐，「仍有很多理由持有黃金」。

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支撐金價的重要因素之一，是央行與實體黃金需求仍然強勁。高爾指出，中國與波蘭等央行持續有實體黃金需求，而中國整體黃金進口量目前看來至少有望創下2017年以來最高水準，顯示中國對黃金仍有非常強勁的需求。

此外，ETF買盤也維持韌性。高爾指出，在市場原本預期聯準會升息、甚至實際升息的環境下，ETF仍持續增加黃金持倉，這種情況相對不尋常；她也認為，部分央行可能因金價上漲而放慢購買，但此次金價回檔後，央行可能重新進場。

至於近期金價遭遇賣壓，高爾認為，部分可能來自演算法交易基金。她表示，這類基金在今年第2季至7月期間曾是賣方，8月轉為建立多頭部位，而近期可能再次反轉；部分技術面訊號周一也同步承壓，因此近期賣壓可能有很大一部分來自演算法交易。

高爾同時指出，長期政府債務與財政永續性的疑慮，仍是黃金的重要支撐因素。如果長天期債券市場出現更多干預、推動殖利率回落，或油價下跌，都可能重新改善黃金所處的環境。

她也提醒，美元與黃金的關係並非始終呈現固定的反向走勢。長期來看，兩者相關性接近於零，但在部分期間會呈現反向相關；如果美元與黃金同時被市場視為避險資產，也可能同步上漲。目前市場則呈現美元走強、黃金走弱的格局，但她不排除這種關係後續發生變化。

高爾重申摩根士丹利對黃金的中長期看法，表示以12個月時間框架來看，金價仍有上漲空間，預期到2027年下半年將重新站上每盎司5000美元；因此，在金價出現回檔時，摩根士丹利將尋求增加黃金部位。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 金價將在2027年下半年重新站上每盎司5000美元

    Likely · Within months

  • 在金價出現回檔時，摩根士丹利將尋求增加黃金部位

    Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 演算法交易基金未來的操作方向將如何影響黃金短期價格？
  • 若美元與黃金同時被視為避險資產，兩者是否可能同步上漲？
  • 央行在何種金價水平下會重新進場購買實體黃金？

Related Topics

黃金
People高爾
Organizations摩根士丹利中國央行波蘭央行聯準會
Places中國波蘭美國
Topics摩根士丹利高爾美元美債殖利率央行需求etf
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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