Gold prices stabilized in Asian trading on Thursday, as investors awaited US jobs data scheduled to be released on Friday, searching for indications on the next path of the Federal Reserve’s policy.
Gold settled in spot transactions at $4,155.65 per ounce by 02:05 GMT, while US gold futures settled at $4,185.40.
The non-farm payrolls data for September comes at the forefront of the indicators that the markets are awaiting, at a time when rising Treasury bond yields continue to support the dollar, which increases the cost of gold denominated in the US currency for holders of other currencies.
Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomics at Tasty Life, said that personal consumption expenditures data gave gold some support, but the gains faded with the continued rise in bond yields, adding that the upcoming data will be important in determining how the market deals with it and its reflection on interest rate expectations.
Data released on Wednesday showed US inflation rose at a lower pace than expected in August, with price pressures in the previous month revised downward, reducing expectations of an interest rate hike in October. On the other hand, traders see an 87 percent probability of raising interest rates in December.
High interest rates negatively affect the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate returns for its holders. Spot gold fell by more than 6 percent during September, recording its first monthly loss after a series of strong gains.
Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said it is unlikely to recover all of September's losses, but he sees reasons to believe that the worst phases of the correction are over for now, with justifications for higher prices.
In other precious metals markets, spot silver rose 0.5 percent to $60.69 per ounce, platinum rose 0.1 percent to $1,708.43, while palladium fell 0.3 percent to $1,200.15.
Oil prices stabilized in early Asian trading on Thursday, after gains in the previous session and strong rises during September, with investors weighing faltering peace talks between the United States and Iran and indications of a recovery in crude exports from the Gulf region.
Brent crude rose 12 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $98.15 a barrel by 00:45 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $90.35.
The two crude oil prices rose by about a dollar per barrel in Wednesday’s session. Brent ended September up about 14 percent, its largest monthly gain since July, while West Texas Intermediate crude increased about 5 percent.
Toshi Taka Tatsuwa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said that buying operations continued due to supply concerns as the peace talks faltered, but selling pressures remained with the emergence of signs of a recovery in oil exports from the Middle East, pointing to Saudi Arabia’s resumption of export operations from the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea as a major factor.
He added that WTI crude oil would need a new catalyst, such as progress in peace negotiations, to break the immediate support level of $88 per barrel.
Markets are awaiting the course of communications between Washington and Tehran, after Qatar said on Tuesday that it hopes that mediation efforts between the two sides will lead to a breakthrough. However, US President Donald Trump denied reports that Washington was ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran taking “tangible” steps regarding its nuclear program.
On the other hand, Gulf supplies began to restore their previous levels. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed loading oil tankers from Yanbu, after restarting the East-West pipeline.
Goldman Sachs estimated that oil exports from the Gulf countries, including undeclared shipments carried by ships whose GPS devices were turned off, rose to 23.3 million barrels per day during the past week, in line with the average for the year 2025, noting that exports doubled during September.
In the supply market, OPEC Plus countries are likely to keep oil production targets for November unchanged when they meet on Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude inventories rose by 922 thousand barrels to 427.3 million barrels during the week ending September 25, compared to analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll of a decrease of 264 thousand barrels. On the other hand, fuel stocks fell strongly with the rise in seasonal and global demand.
Saudi Arabia is continuing to support economic growth and finance its development and strategic priorities during 2027, with preliminary estimates that total spending will reach about 1.392 trillion riyals ($371.2 billion), compared to revenues amounting to 1.202 trillion riyals ($320.5 billion), while the budget deficit is estimated at about 3.6 percent of the gross domestic product.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance announced the preliminary statement of the state’s general budget for the fiscal year 2027, at a time when the Kingdom continues to implement economic transformation programs and expand the base of non-oil activities, in parallel with pursuing a financial policy aimed at supporting growth and maintaining the sustainability of public finances.
Estimates of the Ministry of Finance indicate that total revenues will rise from 1.202 trillion riyals ($320.5 billion) in 2027 to about 1.351 trillion riyals ($360.3 billion) in 2029, while total expenditures will rise from 1.392 trillion riyals ($371.2 billion) to about 1.544 trillion riyals ($411.7 billion) during the same period.
These estimates reflect continued spending on development and strategic priorities and projects with economic and social returns, within the framework of long-term financial planning aimed at maintaining the sustainability of public finances across economic cycles.
At the same time, diversification initiatives and economic reforms contributed to increasing non-oil revenues from about 166 billion riyals ($44.3 billion) in 2015 to 505 billion riyals ($134.7 billion) in 2025, which enhanced the stability of public revenues and the diversification of their sources.
The non-oil economy maintains growth
Preliminary estimates indicate that the Saudi economy will be affected during 2026 by economic and geopolitical developments, with the real GDP expected to contract by 3.6 percent, as a result of a decline in oil activities by 21.8 percent.
On the other hand, non-oil activities are expected to continue to grow by 3.2 percent during the year, limiting the impact of the decline in oil activity on the economy as a whole.
During the first half of 2026, non-oil activities recorded a growth of 1.8 percent, raising their contribution to real GDP to a historic level of 57.3 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and private investment flows.
Unemployment is at 6.5% and inflation is at limited levels
In terms of economic and social indicators, the unemployment rate among Saudis decreased to 6.5 percent during the second quarter of 2026.
At the same time, preliminary estimates indicate that inflation will be recorded at about 2.1 percent for the entire current year, in light of continuing levels of domestic demand and the development of non-oil economic activity.
Local and international financing to support projects
The government intends to continue local and international financing operations during 2027 and the medium term, in accordance with the framework of the medium-term debt strategy, through issuing bonds and sukuks and obtaining loans, in addition to expanding alternative government financing tools.
These tools include project and infrastructure financing and export credit agencies, providing additional channels for financing projects and development priorities.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan confirmed that the initial estimates for the 2027 budget come in light of a global economic environment characterized by continued uncertainty and accelerating geopolitical developments.
He said that the Kingdom continues to manage its public finances from a long-term perspective, which enhances its ability to deal with changes and continue spending on development and strategic priorities, while maintaining the sustainability of public finances and the solidity of the financial position.
He added that the government continues to monitor economic and geopolitical developments and evaluate their potential repercussions on the global economy, supply chains and energy markets, and deal with them with flexible and proactive policies that support the economy and enhance its ability to continue achieving the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.
Al-Jadaan stressed the continuation of economic transformation plans to support growth and expand the economic base, which will be reflected in the growth of non-oil revenues and contribute to achieving more sustainable and stable levels of revenues in the medium and long term.
The 2027 deficit is part of a long-term fiscal policy
The estimated deficit at 3.6 percent of GDP comes as part of a financial policy aimed at maintaining the soundness of the financial position and enhancing financial sustainability, while continuing spending on priority projects.
According to the Ministry of Finance, this approach allows the government to adopt balanced financial policies across economic cycles, support growth, adapt to changes, and manage crises and emergency needs, while maintaining sustainable levels of public debt and significant financial reserves.
The government intends to continue local and international financing operations during 2027 and in the medium term, in accordance with the framework of the medium-term debt strategy, by issuing bonds and sukuks and obtaining loans at a fair cost, in addition to expanding alternative government financing tools, including financing projects, infrastructure, and export credit agencies.
