According to people familiar with the U.S. assessment, although Xi Jinping has instructed the Chinese military to be prepared to seize Taiwan by force if necessary by 2027, U.S. officials believe that the possibility of China taking over Taiwan by force before 2028 is becoming increasingly smaller.
According to two current U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and a person familiar with the matter, there are two main reasons: First, the CCP has launched an anti-corruption campaign and many top military officials have been dismissed, resulting in a lag in military combat readiness; second, Beijing is also waiting for the results of Taiwan's 2028 election, and some Chinese officials hope that a more pro-Beijing government will come to power in this election.
These people added that if the Democratic Progressive Party continues to win Taiwan's elections, especially if current President Lai Ching-te is re-elected, Beijing may be inclined to take military action after 2028. "If that happens, I think the situation in 2028 is going to be pretty serious," one of the U.S. officials said.
The exclusive report from Reuters pointed out that this previously unreported assessment is a major update to the long-standing understanding of U.S. officials. Previously, the United States generally believed that Xi Jinping wanted his military to be ready to have the ability to attack Taiwan by force in 2027, the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
It is worth mentioning that Xi Jinping’s directive that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army must have combat capabilities by 2027 has never been publicly confirmed by China. This is the previous assessment of the United States. In addition, the time point of 2027 refers to the combat readiness of the Chinese army, rather than a specific timetable for attacking Taiwan.
Beijing has always emphasized that Taiwan is an integral part of China's territory and has never ruled out the possibility of reunification by force (short for "unification of Taiwan by force").
The U.S. intelligence community has previously hinted at China's caution. In its annual threat assessment report released in March this year, U.S. intelligence agencies noted that China (at least at that time) had no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, but still preferred to seize control of Taiwan without the use of force.
Although it has no formal diplomatic relations, the United States remains Taiwan's most important international supporter and arms supplier. U.S. officials have different views on whether China regards the 2028 U.S. presidential election as an important consideration.
Three people familiar with the matter said Beijing is likely to evaluate the outcome of the U.S. election — especially given U.S. voters’ growing distaste for U.S. military operations overseas. However, the U.S. official mentioned above pointed out that Beijing believes that the Democratic and Republican parties have roughly the same position on the Taiwan issue.
The official said that while China may have some preference for the outcome of the 2028 U.S. election, "in my opinion, that is no longer as decisive a factor as it was 15 years ago."
U.S. President Trump has downplayed the possibility of China attacking Taiwan with force during his term. He said last year that Xi Jinping told him that China would not launch an attack on his watch. After receiving Xi Jinping in Washington last week, Trump made only a brief statement on the Taiwan issue, saying that the Taiwan issue was discussed during the conversation and that Xi Jinping understood his position.
According to U.S. officials, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has not given up on his goal of giving the People's Liberation Army the capability to attack Taiwan with force by 2027. But people familiar with the matter said the PLA's military progress last year fell short of expectations due to China's domestic anti-corruption campaign.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi Jinping has launched a massive anti-corruption campaign. Millions of people in China's vast bureaucracy have been investigated, and a large number of high-level party, government and military officials have been dismissed and purged. In recent years, the People's Liberation Army has increasingly become a key target of this movement. After a series of investigations and punishments, the 20th Central Military Commission, originally composed of seven members, now has only two members left - including Chairman Xi Jinping himself.
China's military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than in past years, according to a U.S. official. Although the scale of the exercises has picked up this year, the official pointed out that Chinese military leaders are not satisfied with their combat readiness.
The official also said that it is believed that China has learned lessons from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, that is, once it launches an invasion, it must fight quickly to avoid falling into the quagmire of a protracted war.
"For this military operation (to attack Taiwan), (China) still has too many links that have not been fully put in place," the official said.
