Jifutong has celebrated its 10th anniversary of operation. A celebration event was held today. Zhang Xi (1st from the right) attended as a consultant.
"Commander-in-Chief of Bulls" Zhang Xijin said that with TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 200 yuan from 110 yuan this year, 150 yuan next year, and the year after next, based on the price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to 25 times in the past, he is optimistic that TSMC's stock price will have the opportunity to reach 5,000 yuan in 2028, which will also push Taiwan stocks towards 70,000 points.
Jifutong, the largest fund trading platform in China, has celebrated its 10th anniversary today. Zhang Xi attended the event as a consultant. Zhang Xi analyzed that the market has a high degree of consensus on TSMC’s future profit trajectory. He emphasized that TSMC’s current price-to-earnings ratio is actually very low, which is simply a point-blank question. He believes that in the next 5 to 10 years, no one in the world will be able to break TSMC’s dominance in AI chip foundry.
Zhang Xi estimates that TSMC’s earnings per share (EPS) this year will be around 110 yuan, and will reach 150 yuan next year. It is even expected to challenge 200 yuan by 2028. If calculated based on the historical price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to 25 times, when EPS reaches 200 yuan, TSMC’s stock price will reach 5,000 yuan. He further pointed out that when TSMC reaches 5,000 yuan, it will drive the Taiwan stock index to 70,000 points.
In response to the market's doubts about the AI bubble, Zhang Xi made it clear that the demand for AI is very strong, and the current problem is "it can't be made." Production bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main cause of market fluctuations, not demand reversal.
He pointed out as an example that even though the current interest rates for some cloud companies or computing centers to borrow money from private equity funds are as high as 10% to 15%, they still invest heavily without hesitation. The reason is that the return on investment of AI computing power is extremely high, and the investment can be recovered in about two to two and a half years. As long as high gross profits can cover capital costs, businesses will not be afraid of the high interest rate environment. This also makes future industrial development obviously "K-shaped": traditional industries that lack AI support and have low gross profits will feel pressure when facing an interest rate of 5%; but for AI-related supply chains, the impact of interest rate increases will be minimal.
Regarding the recent overselling of foreign capital and various noises in the market, Zhang Xi believes that foreign capital has increased its assets by more than 20 trillion yuan this year as Taiwan stocks have surged. Therefore, it is completely reasonable to realize a profit-taking of 2 trillion yuan. This is only a temporary arrangement of chips. When foreign capital discovers the global shortage Funds will eventually flow back when there is no better target; as for the political uncertainty of the US election, Zhang Xi believes that AI development has been upgraded to a national security and major power competition. No matter which party is in power, it cannot bear the risk of being caught up by China, so the promotion of infrastructure construction will only accelerate.
He also mentioned that AI servers are currently facing problems such as insufficient CoWoS packaging capacity, HBM memory shortages, and liquid cooling technologies that have yet to be overcome. Zhang Xi expects that as CoWoS production capacity is doubled and various technical shortcomings are gradually overcome, the AI supply chain will usher in a smoother shipment wave next year, driving the profits of related companies to once again explode. Semiconductor manufacturing, packaging and testing, and key components (such as heat dissipation, power equipment) will be the biggest winners.
After the market crash in July this year, Zhang Xi believes that it will help eliminate speculation targets that are over-leveraged and lack fundamental support, which is a "benign and healthy adjustment" for Taiwan stocks. He said that in the future, Taiwan's stock market will no longer be a speculative market where "it will rise even if you buy ghost stories." Instead, the market will be driven by good companies with real profitable fundamentals.
For ordinary investors, Zhang Xi suggested that they should not panic because of short-term fluctuations, nor should they hesitate. Facing the financial management needs in the longevity era, investors should seize the opportunity to deploy good companies at low-end, or use low-handling fee platforms such as "Jifutong" to adhere to "regular fixed amounts and disciplined investment" to participate in this wave of long-term asset appreciation opportunities driven by AI fundamentals.
