The most serious moment of memory shortage has not yet arrived. Team Group: It will continue until the second half of 2028.

Chen Qingwen, CEO of Team Group. (File photo)

[Reporter Lin Yiru/Taipei Report] Memory module factory Team Group (4967) held a press conference today (2). Team Group CEO Chen Qingwen said that this wave of memory boom is different from previous price cycles. "This time is really different." Due to the demand for AI, Due to the squeeze on traditional memory production capacity and the high concentration of the supply chain, the entire industry has undergone structural changes. Prices will continue to rise in the short term. The truly serious shortage period will fall from the fourth quarter to the end of the second quarter of next year. "By then, even if you have money, you may not be able to buy it." Team Group also expects that the overall tight supply and demand situation will not turn around until the second half of 2028 at the earliest.

Chen Qingwen said that in the past, the memory market often experienced price cycles every few months, but this wave of prices has been rising for about a year. The key behind this lies in changes in the industrial structure. Due to the increased concentration of the world's major memory manufacturers and their strong price dominance, as well as the fact that supply and demand have not yet returned to balance, it is difficult to see a rapid reversal in prices due to excessive increases in the short term.

Chen Qingwen further pointed out that although Chinese memory factories continue to develop, their output in the overall industry is still limited, and it is not enough to change the global supply and demand pattern in the short term. Especially in terms of higher-end products, they are mainly supplied by major manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. The manufacturing and technical barriers to advanced products are high, making it difficult to increase supply quickly.

Chen Qingwen predicts that the memory market will be most out of stock from the fourth quarter of this year to the end of the second quarter next year. The supply of goods flowing to the market may be significantly reduced, and the supply tightness will further increase. In the past year, the price of some memory products has increased by about 8 to 14 times. However, this period is not the most serious period of shortage. The subsequent market may even further change from the current "price is high, but the goods are still available" to "even if you have money, you may not be able to buy the goods."

In terms of the consumer market, TEAMGROUP said that mobile phones and consumer personal computers (PCs) are relatively unfavorable in terms of memory capacity allocation. Some PC brands have controlled the cost of the entire machine by reducing product specifications. It is expected that this situation will not change much next year. Even if new supply opportunities may arise in the second half of next year, the relevant production capacity allocation may have already been determined. Therefore, the price of consumer basic memory modules will still be supported next year, but the market may not truly turn around until the second half of 2028.

Team Group's newly purchased 1,000 square meter factory building plans to introduce automated production equipment to support the small and diverse product needs of enterprise and industrial control customers. The new factory will start decoration and equipment installation in the first quarter of next year, and will be completed and put into production in the second quarter. It is expected to increase production capacity by about 50%.