The number of newborns continues to hit a low, and Taiwan is facing a crisis of declining birthrate. (File photo, taken by reporter Cai Zhengmin)
According to the latest household registration statistics released by the Department of Household Affairs of the Ministry of the Interior, the number of births this year as of August totaled 61,742, a significant decrease of 11,036 from the same period last year. There were only 7,492 newborns nationwide in August this year, a decrease of 414 from July. The total population of the country has shown negative growth for 32 consecutive months.
Zhang Dingxuan, associate professor of the Department of Finance at Jingwen University of Science and Technology, said that the number of births in Taiwan this year is expected to be less than 100,000. Just imagine what Taiwanese society will look like in 20 years. He said that the "real estate speculation and subjugation theory" he proposed 20 years ago was regarded as nonsense by the media at the time. It was only reported on a large scale in 2021. Now five years have passed, "Has Taiwan's fertility rate increased in the past five years?"
Zhang Dingxuan said that people's disposable income should be allocated to food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, and entertainment, and should also include insurance premiums and investment savings necessary for some old-age life security. When housing prices rise, which will drive rents to rise, the proportion of disposable income in housing expenses will increase.
So where will the expenses that can be compressed come from? Zhang Dingxuan said that the median disposable income of households in Taipei City, Tianlong State, is estimated to be about 1.4 million. If the housing expenditure is assumed to be 40%, 840,000 will be left after deducting it. Food, clothing, and transportation are basic living expenses. Not only cannot they be compressed, but they are also rising. So where can the rest be compressed? He thinks there will be 4 directions:
1. The traditional concept of raising children to protect against old age is to bet on the possibility that one's life will be short-lived or become an old person, so all the insurance money and investment savings necessary for old-age life security are saved.
2. Being a full-time robot saves money on entertainment expenses. The thinking of the older generation is to watch TV at home and go out for a walk in the park and countryside for zero-dollar entertainment.
3. Children think the same way as the very old generation, they should have as many children as they can and let them go as long as they are born. The older ones get jobs after graduating from high school, and the older ones raise the younger ones, keeping the cost of education down.
4. Give birth late, give birth infrequently, and nurture the children you give birth to as treasures.
Zhang Dingxuan said that in today's society, there are obviously fewer families choosing 1+23, and more families choosing 4, especially families above the middle class.
Of course, housing prices are not the only factor. For example, the median disposable income of a family in Taipei City is about 1.4 million, the median income of boys is about 800,000, and the median income of women is 700,000. This means that it usually only reaches 1.4 million when both couples are working.
If a child is born, who will take care of the child aged 0-3? Are there any suitable kindergartens for children aged 3 to 6 years old? Will children aged 6 to 15 have to move frequently because the lease term is only one year, and the children will have to change schools frequently?
At present, the central government provides a one-time subsidy of 100,000 yuan for newborn babies, plus the childcare allowance for the first two years: 5,000 × 24 months = 120,000 yuan, a total of 220,000 yuan. Including local governments, taking Taipei City as an example, 40,000 to 50,000, totaling up to 270,000.
Does it feel like a lot? Anyone who has raised children knows? There is still a long way to go. This does not include the physical and mental stress that cannot be quantified.
Zhang Dingxuan said that the Ministry of Health and Welfare established the Office of Countermeasures against the Decreasing Birthrate in 2017. Regardless of whether it is just an office without a budget, it shows that officials are aware of the problem of Taiwan's declining birth rate.
But are the results correct? In 2017, there were 193,844 births in Taiwan; in 2026, it is estimated that there will only be 94,373. There were 99,471 fewer newborns in the past nine years, a decrease of 51.3%. "Numbers can speak for themselves. The government just didn't give the right treatment and screwed up."
