
美國總統川普與中國國家主席習近平在白宮舉行雙邊會談,前白宮官員葛瑞分析指出,川普達成維持美中關係穩定的目標,美國對台立場短期內不會改變,將依常態化軍售時程繼續向台灣提供先進武器。雙方同意延長貿易休戰兩個月並設立美中AI對話。
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川普與習近平今年已第二次會面,前一次為5月川普訪問北京。雙方會談聚焦美中關係穩定、台灣議題及經貿議題。美方重申對台六項保證及台灣關係法義務,中方堅持反對台獨。
美國總統川普今天和中國國家主席習近平在白宮舉行雙邊會談。前白宮官員葛瑞接受中央社專訪分析,川普達成維持美中關係穩定的目標;他並認為,美國對台立場短期內不會改變,華府將繼續向台灣提供先進武器,按照常態化軍售時程推進。
川普(Donald Trump)今天在白宮迎接習近平並舉行雙邊會談。這是習近平時隔11年,再度赴美進行國是訪問,也是繼川普5月訪問北京後,川習兩人今年第二度會面。
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白宮至今尚未發布會談摘要。中國官媒新華社則報導,習近平在會中表示,希望美方堅持反對「台獨」,「慎重處理台灣問題」,為中美戰略合作和兩國關係發展奠定基礎。
●習近平對台灣議題強硬 美將持續對台軍售
曾於川普1.0擔任白宮國安會幕僚長的葛瑞(Alexander Gray)晚間接受記者視訊專訪表示,習近平喜歡說教,在和美國及其他國家領導人的互動中,台灣是他表現最強硬的議題。
葛瑞認為,美國對台灣的立場,不僅是川普政府的立場、也是美國整體的立場,已在對台六項保證及各項官方文件中奠定,「這在短期內是不會改變的」。
在對台軍售議題上,川普至今尚未就新一批140億美元的對台軍售案做出決定,鑒於川習兩人今年底可能還有2次會晤的機會,將如何影響對台軍售?葛瑞表示,美國依據台灣關係法及六項保證,有義務繼續提供台灣自我防衛所需的能力,美國對維持台灣作為自治實體具有重大利益,這點在短期內不會改變。
就他看來,川普只會強化美國維護現狀的能力,無論這筆軍售是在現在到某個特定日期之間批准,或在未來幾個月內批准,或是分成幾批較小規模的軍售案,「美國都將繼續向台灣供應先進武器」。
美國官員先前表示,川普第一個總統任期內批准的對台軍售總額超過其他任何一位美國總統。葛瑞也說,他看不到有任何事情會改變。
他認為,美國仍將按照常態化的軍售時程來推進對台軍售,問題不在於「會不會發生」,而是「何時發生」、軍售案的規模有多大及包含的項目。
●川習今年兩度會面 目的在於維護美中關係穩定
葛瑞現為地緣政治顧問公司「美國全球戰略」(American Global Strategies)執行長。針對這場川習會,他表示,川普達到了維持美中關係穩定的目標,「這並非為了達成什麼重大的歷史性協議,而是為了保持關係穩定」。
美中領導人不到半年內舉行兩次會晤,葛瑞分析,這反映出川普重視與中國維持良好且穩定的關係,也重視與習近平保持積極的個人關係。川普向來認為,領導人之間的個人關係對於維護國家間的穩定至關重要。
葛瑞指出,會面本身就具有實質意義,無論是否有重大宣布,它允許美中領導人會面、對話並保持開放的溝通,「這點本身就是一項成就」。
外媒報導,川習會前,美國財政部長貝森特(Scott Bessent)先行和中國國務院副總理何立峰會談後宣布,華府與北京已同意將原定11月10日到期的貿易休戰延長兩個月。貝森特也說,兩國已正式確立「美中AI對話」。
美中在人工智慧(AI)領域激烈競爭之際,葛瑞表示,美中設立AI對話並未放棄美國在AI領域的主導地位,也未改變中國想要取得主導地位的野心,它反映了一個現實:AI確實可能引發失控的事件,「建立一個開放溝通管道,試圖防止這類事件升級,是非常有道理的做法」。
在延長貿易休戰的部分,他認為,美國顯然希望在經濟和戰略上保持穩定,以爭取更多時間改善美國在稀土、藥品方面的情況,並將更多供應鏈帶回美國,為長期競爭做好準備。從美國的角度來看,有越多時間能建立韌性和產能越好。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
美國將在未來數月內批准對台軍售,規模可能分批進行
Very likely · Within months
美中貿易休戰將再次延長或談判向好
Likely · Within months
美中AI對話將成為定期機制,但不改變雙方在AI領域的競爭野心
Likely · Within months

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