For two years, the world has weathered President Trump’s arbitrary unilateralism, weathering rolling tariffs, a war on Iran, incursions in Latin America, an abrupt U-turn on Ukraine, and a barrage of demands on allies including Canada, Germany and Japan.
Now, with Democrats taking control of Congress and nearly all of Trump's favored Republicans defeated, many countries are exploring what another political upheaval in the United States will bring.
Some analysts say the new Congress may curb President Trump's most impulsive ideas. There was a palpable celebratory mood online. As the results were announced, the hashtag "Trump's total fiasco" was trending on Weibo, China's mainstream social media platform.
But with the president given vast leeway on foreign policy, an ongoing question has arisen from Asia to Europe: Will an election defeat at home spur Trump to take more aggressive action globally?
"In response to a Democratic-controlled Congress, Trump may try to draw attention elsewhere, including on tariffs and the use of force," said Zhuang Jiaying, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
Countries around the world are assessing how the U.S. election results may affect the most pressing issues in international affairs.
war with iran
The Democratic victory initially brought a glimmer of optimism in Asia, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy.
"In Southeast Asia, the main challenge has been the inflationary pressure caused by the Iran war. That has made everything much more expensive," Zhuang said. "Now there is hope of getting some kind of respite."
However, he and many others are skeptical of this optimism. Many countries have expressed concerns that the war with Iraq will continue to escalate in the short term—Trump may attack Iran again after the election—thus exacerbating oil and gas supply tensions.
For now, the mood is more somber than jubilant: Oil prices are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future, posing challenges for businesses and leaving many speculating on what Trump might do next.
tariff
U.S. trade investigators have spent months probing more than a dozen countries for alleged labor violations and overcapacity in products ranging from chemicals to cars. Now that the White House is no longer concerned about drawing attention to inflation ahead of the election, countries may expect the U.S. to resume its aggressive push for tariffs.
Japan, China and Vietnam are all potential targets for additional tariffs. In many countries, the new tariffs will be stacked on top of existing tariffs, bringing rates back to levels seen before the Supreme Court overturned previous tariffs in February.
Trump still has broad powers on trade issues. However, Congress can use its newfound federal budget leverage and oversight powers to influence some of the details.
“You may see Congress push for more tariff exemptions and exceptions in categories that impact the wallets of its constituents,” said Stephen Olson, a former U.S. trade negotiator and visiting senior fellow at the Yusof Issa Institute of Southeast Asia in Singapore.
Overall, in Asia and elsewhere, many expect U.S. protectionism to continue as the president seeks to leave a legacy and remains determined to bend the global economy to his will.
Talking about the mood in Japan, Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor of American politics and diplomacy at Sophia University in Tokyo, said: "People are deeply disturbed by the past actions of the Trump administration and remain anxious about the future. Although there is hope for change, it is still unknown whether such change can actually be realized."
Competition with China
The U.S. election is not expected to change the direction of U.S.-China relations, especially in their on-again, off-again trade truce. The two parties increasingly agree to take a tougher stance against China on economic competition and disputed territorial issues.
But on Weibo, China's dominant social media platform, the preliminary results initially prompted some schadenfreude for President Trump. Xu Shaolin, a well-known commentator with nearly 4 million followers, wrote that if the defeat of the two chambers is a foregone conclusion, "this president who talks about being unreliable will probably become a lame duck."
Still, Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, predicted that the Democrats' success would mean trouble for U.S.-China relations.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump reached an understanding at a May summit to support what China defines as "constructive strategic stability." But Shi Yinhong predicted that this understanding would break down “because Trump suddenly becomes far from omnipotent.”
He said a Democratic-controlled Congress could also strengthen U.S. relations with traditional allies, including Japan, which would also be detrimental to China.
Yang Haowei, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Taipei, believes that the election results may be a "potential positive signal" for Taiwan.
He said he believed the Democratic-led Congress was likely to increase pressure on the White House to approve a long-delayed $14 billion weapons package that would improve Taiwan's ability to defend against Chinese military threats.
American alliances and leadership
Trump has threatened his country’s partners and allies with everything from tariffs to bombs. On Tuesday, public reaction in some formerly friendly countries alienated by Trump turned toward relief or celebration at the Democratic victory.
