Budget smartphone market expected to shrink due to rising production costs
Quick Look
According to a report by Counterpoint Research, the market for low-cost smartphones under $200 could shrink by 40% by 2030 due to the memory crisis and rising manufacturing costs.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The memory market is in a state of crisis, which leads to a significant increase in prices for LPDDR4 components.
The market for low-cost smartphones will shrink due to rising production costs. This is stated in a report by Counterpoint Research (CR).
CR researchers noted that the memory market is still in crisis. According to their forecast, because of this, supplies of low-cost smartphones could be reduced by 230 million units or by 40 percent by 2030. Thus, the most popular segment of phones will almost disappear. CR analysts include affordable gadgets that cost no more than $200 (17 thousand rubles).
The report states that in the second quarter of 2026, memory prices were approximately three times higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. Production of LPDDR4 memory, which is used in low-cost and popular devices, could decline by more than 40 percent in 2026.
At the same time, total global shipments of all types of smartphones in 2026 will decrease by 13.9 percent, to 1.08 billion devices. Analysts noted that this would be the minimum figure in the last 13 years. The material also states that the market will begin to recover by 2028, but supplies of cheap devices will not reach their previous level even by the end of the decade.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Reducing supplies of budget smartphones by 40% by 2030
Likely · Within years
Open Questions
- Which manufacturers will be hit the hardest?
- Will there be alternative memory technologies for the budget segment?
