During China’s National Day “Golden Week” this year, Xia Xia (pseudonym), a Shanghai resident in her 20s, chose to travel to Southeast Asia with her friends. There are many people like her who go on vacation overseas. "So many people go abroad...the entire WeChat circle of friends feels like they are abroad."
Anticipating that domestic tourist attractions in China would be overcrowded, and that high-speed rail tickets would become more expensive and difficult to obtain, Xia told DW, “It would be better to just go abroad.” She has her own rules for spending money. For example, during the trip, "eating does not have to be on the budget at all, you must eat well"; and because she is traveling to the island with friends, she cannot save on accommodation.
The biggest expense for this National Day trip to West Asia was the round-trip air ticket, which cost nearly 5,000 yuan. She considers herself to be a "real-time enjoyment" type, but also admitted that due to her reduced income, her travel budget has been "significantly reduced" compared to last year, and because she has already spent a large amount of money on air tickets abroad, she usually has to save money in other areas.
The tourism wave is still there
During the National Day Golden Week every year, public tourism and consumption data are important indicators for observing the Chinese economy. This year China has a 7-day National Day holiday (October 1st to 7th); if you include the Mid-Autumn Festival, you can even take only 3 days off, or 13 days in a row.
According to a preliminary report from Citigroup, this time China's National Day holiday continues, economic activity is generally flat, but cross-border tourism (including Hong Kong and Macao) performs better than China's domestic tourism market.
Data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China in late September showed that the number of international flight ticket bookings during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday increased by 22.5% year-on-year; the number of flights to Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Laos increased by approximately 20%, and long-distance flights to the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain also increased by 15%.
It is worth noting that according to China's "Tuniu Travel Network" quoted by Kyodo News, Japan, which was once the first choice for Chinese tourists to go abroad, fell out of the top ten overseas tourism destinations during this year's National Day holiday. Last year, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks that "something happened in Taiwan" caused a diplomatic turmoil between China and Japan. The Chinese government has repeatedly warned the public to avoid traveling to Japan. Factors such as the Japanese government's tightening of immigration policies this year and the increase in visa fees have also affected the willingness of Chinese tourists to visit Japan.
In addition, although China has implemented the "Regulations of the State Council on Exit and Entry Management" since September 15, and has strengthened controls on people's entry and exit on the grounds of "maintaining national sovereignty, security, and development interests," there is no clear evidence during this National Day Golden Week whether the new regulations affect the general public's willingness to go abroad and whether they are indeed restricted as a result.
In terms of domestic tourism, the figures show that the performance is not far from last year.
The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism (Ministry of Culture and Tourism) has not released official statistics on the total number of domestic tourists, but the Ministry of Transport's "cross-regional mobility of people in society" can initially provide a glimpse of the scale of domestic travel during this consecutive holiday. On the first day of the holiday, the number was about 329 million, a slight decrease of 1.9% from last year and lower than expected; the total number of passengers in the first four days was about 1.244 billion, roughly the same as the same period last year.
Most official media emphasize the positive effects of the long holiday on tourism, especially the changes in domestic tourism patterns. Xinhua News Agency reported that the long holidays have prompted people to arrange "long-distance travel across provinces" that spans multiple places within China; at the same time, more and more people tend to avoid popular attractions and choose "tours to small towns in counties," also known as "tours to counties."
Observing Chinese social platforms, we can also see that "reverse tourism", which is about in-depth experience in small counties and not rushing to check in, has become a hot topic.
After the COVID-19 epidemic, this type of tourism gradually became popular in China, but this National Day holiday has highlighted the challenges it faces. For example, keywords such as "100,000 people flocked to a small town of 50,000 people" were on the hot search: In Qilian County, Haibei Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, the number of tourists exceeded expectations, and the local hotel industry was unable to absorb it. The local government urgently opened school dormitories to accommodate tourists.
People are cautious in consumption
"Travel is still picking up, but consumption should still be tight."
Wang Wangochen, an associate researcher at the First Research Institute of the China Economic Research Institute in Taiwan, believes that this year is similar to the trend in the past few years. The flow of Chinese tourists may not be reflected in consumption levels. "The phenomenon of poor travel should continue."
Lizzi C. Lee, a researcher at the China Analysis Center of the Asian Institute for Social Policy, an American think tank, told DW that people are willing to go out and spend money, but "have become more cautious about how much and what they spend."
According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China, during last year’s eight-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, 888 million people traveled across the country, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 809 billion, and an average consumption of RMB 911 per person; this year’s figures have yet to be announced.
According to other data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, in the three days before the National Day holiday, the passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) increased by 3.4% and 5.3% respectively; retail consumption of automobiles, home appliances, digital and smart products, supported by the "old for new" policy, drove sales of 19.63 billion yuan.
However, the movie's box office performance was quite dismal. According to statistics from Chinese movie box office platforms such as "Lighthouse" and "Maoyan", the total box office of theatrical films on the first day of this year's National Day was approximately RMB 181 million, a drop of more than 40% from last year and a new low in the past five years. From October 1st to the early morning of October 7th, the box office for the National Day period was approximately 1.07 billion yuan; the total box office for the 8-day National Day period last year was 1.835 billion yuan. The main reason for the weak box office may be related to the lack of "blockbusters" in this year's National Day schedule.
Previously, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China planned late September to the end of October as the "National Day Culture and Tourism Consumption Month". Various cultural and tourism products and activities were launched in various places, and more than 310 million yuan in consumer vouchers and other consumption subsidies were issued. However, experts believe that these measures have little effect on stimulating public consumption.
Wang Guochen pointed out to DW: "The problem is still an old problem, and their methods are also old methods, so there is no need to expect too much that old methods will be more effective in solving old problems."
China's youth unemployment rate has been high in recent years, and coupled with the shrinking real estate market, related industries have also been hit, which has reduced people's purchasing power. Wang Guochen said, "The Beijing authorities still regard the low consumption as people's unwillingness to consume... In fact, it is because of the gap between the rich and the poor that most of the money is concentrated in a small number of bourgeoisie. Most people have no money, so they (the government) cannot achieve the results they expected through this method of consumption coupons or discount coupons."
Li Qi pointed to the trend of people being cautious about traveling and spending, pointing to fundamental confidence issues in China's economy, including the sluggish housing market, which has impacted household wealth, and the overall income and job market prospects are still weak. In addition, consumption habits have also shifted towards being more budget-conscious and pursuing discounts and value for money. But this does not mean that people will not consume at all.
"Chinese consumers are becoming more and more picky. They will spend money on travel, concerts, restaurants, experiential consumption, technology products, etc., as long as they think it is worthwhile; but in other places, they will work hard to save money."
Looking forward to China's economy
On the eve of the National Day Golden Week, China has just announced that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for September was 50.1%; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the prosperity of the non-manufacturing industry has improved.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (Fifth Plenary Session) will be held at the end of October. At that time, people from all walks of life will observe whether the CCP decision-makers will release new economic policies and stimulus measures. The year 2026 coincides with China's 15th Five-Year Plan, the "starting" year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", and economic performance and policy direction have also attracted special attention.
At the "Two Sessions" (National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and National People's Congress) at the beginning of the year, the Chinese government set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at "4.5% to 5%." However, insufficient domestic consumption has seriously hindered economic growth, and China still relies heavily on exports to achieve its economic goals.
Citigroup's report concludes that consumption's priority in next year's policy agenda should be elevated, and if exports cool down, the importance of consumption will be highlighted.
