After Micron announced its large-scale investment, there was a sense of caution about the booming memory industry.

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Yu-ah = Immediately after Micron's plan to expand large-scale facility investment was revealed, some in the market felt wary of the mid- to long-term memory industry's boom. This is because if prices go down due to increased production, it can have a corresponding impact on profits.

However, experts generally say that significant production increase effects will only be seen in the second half of next year, and the prevailing view is that such concerns are premature.

According to industry sources on the 4th, Micron presented a blueprint that it will invest $25 billion (approximately KRW 34 trillion) in facility investment in the first half of fiscal 2027, and will increase even more in the second half of the year.

At the same time, Micron announced that its sales in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (June to August) reached an all-time high of $54.23 billion (approximately 73.5 trillion won), which is nearly five times that of the same period last year.

In the domestic stock market, which was held immediately after the announcement of record-breaking performance, stock prices again received downward pressure until Korea's export statistics for September were announced.

On the 1st, Samsung Electronics [005930] and SK Hynix [000660] opened with a decline of around 0.7%, and in the New York Stock Exchange, Micron fell by more than 3% in the early hours of trading the day after the announcement.

Although the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields was influenced, some analysts say that Micron's good performance was also influenced by selling sentiment due to concerns about the downside of increased facility investment.

A researcher at a securities firm explained, “As Micron significantly increased its facility investment, there may have been concerns that DRAM price growth and profitability could slow down if supply balances with demand.”

In particular, China's Changshin Memory (CXMT) began to stand out in the memory market, raising concerns about oversupply at one time, making it more sensitive to this possibility.

However, experts believe that even if facility investment is expanded, the supply shortage will continue until 2028.

Ryu Hyeong-geun, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “Increasing facility investment does not cause an immediate increase in production,” and analyzed, “A significant production increase effect will appear from the second half of 2028.”

Experts also believe that it is worth noting that a significant portion of the increased investment costs will be invested in the construction of factories and clean rooms, not production equipment.

Kim Seon-woo, a researcher at Meritz Securities, said, “DRAM industry shipments are expected to grow by mid-20% this year and in the low 20% range next year and the year after.” He added, “Considering HBM’s production conversion rate in particular, shipment restrictions may become more severe.”

He emphasized, "In the past, memory demand has been characterized by price elasticity, but now competitive spending is inevitable to reach AGI (artificial general intelligence) on a first-come, first-served basis. In the future, memory demand will show an inverse price elasticity."